March 25 (UPI) — Consumer confidence dropped for a fourth consecutive month, with numbers that may signal the arrival of a recession, as reported by the Conference Board.
The financial nonprofit think tank announced Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index fell by 7.2 points as of March 19. Its Present Situation Index, based on the assessment by consumers of current business and labor market conditions, also decreased, dropping by 3.6 points.
The Board also has an Expectations Index, based on the short-term outlook of consumers for business, income and labor market conditions, and that also fell 9.6 points. In a press release, the Conference Board said the Expectations Index decline was the lowest in 12 years and its current threshold “usually signals a recession ahead.”
Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board Stephanie Guichard said in a press release that of the five components that form the Consumer Confidence Index, “only consumers’ assessment of present labor market conditions improved, albeit slightly.”
She referred to consumers’ expectations as “especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low.”
Guichard noted that while the March tumble was driven by consumers over age 55, and then to a lesser extent consumers between 35 and 55, consumer confidence rose “slightly” among people under 35.
“Likely in response to recent market volatility, consumers turned negative about the stock market for the first time since the end of 2023,” she also noted, as during March, only 37.4% of people expected stock prices to rise over the year ahead, which is also down nearly 10 percentage points from February and 20 percentage points from November 2024. Twelve-month inflation expectations also went up “as consumers remained concerned about high prices for key household staples like eggs and the impact of tariffs.”
