For the wider world, the US election is all about who gets to move into the White House, but for many Americans, the battle for control of Congress is just as important — and looks set to go down to the wire.
While the presidential race sucks up all the oxygen, hundreds of congressional districts nationwide will determine whether the incoming leader gets a unified government dedicated to enacting his or her agenda — or bureaucratic deadlock.
“Congressional elections are just as important as the presidential race because Congress creates and passes the laws that directly impact people’s lives,” said Corryn Freeman of Future Coalition, an organization that supports youth activists nationwide.
“The public should pay close attention since control of Congress determines the direction of key issues like health care, education and climate policy — often having a more immediate effect than presidential decisions.”
The US Capitol, the neoclassical citadel of American democracy overlooking Washington’s National Mall, is divided into the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for grabs — and a 100-member upper chamber, the Senate, where 34 seats are available.
Both make laws and act as a check on the other branches of government — but are also critically important for global affairs, setting the defense budget, regulating trade and tariffs and allocating overseas aid.
Too close to call
When Republican candidate Donald Trump was last in power, he was blocked by Congress as he sought deep cuts to the State Department and an end to the Obamacare health insurance program, and lawmakers could stand in his way again if he returns to the Oval Office.
The two sides vying for control of Congress could hardly be more evenly matched in the frantic month-long sprint to November 5.
Control of the House looks like a toss-up, while the Senate is likely to flip by a razor-thin margin to the Republicans, because of the challenging election map for Democrats.
The party of Trump’s election rival Kamala Harris has a narrow one-seat Senate majority but is defending around two-thirds of the seats up for election.
Among those are three in states that Trump carried twice and five are in the closely fought swing states, where voters are not afraid to switch allegiance when election season comes around.
Senate Democrats begin election night with a default deficit of one as they have no chance of hanging on to retiring moderate Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, one of the most fervently Trumpist states in the union.
Republicans need to flip just one other battleground to have an outright majority and are targeting Montana and Ohio, two more right-leaning states with longstanding Democratic incumbents.
Democrats are hoping to offset any losses by unseating Florida’s Rick Scott, whose lead has been cut to four points, or Ted Cruz, who is just five points ahead and in danger of relinquishing his party’s nearly three-decade grip on Texas.
Trifecta?
Democrats are counting on an abortion referendum mobilizing support in Florida, although anger over Republican-led curbs on reproductive health care did not dent the party’s support in the Sunshine State in the 2022 midterms.
Freeman, the youth leader, said that while she expected Republicans to flip the Senate, and the House battle to be neck-and-neck, a Democratic “trifecta” of total control in Congress and the White House was still possible.
The House contests are considered a more reliable test of American political sentiment than the Senate, as every House member is up for reelection every two years while senators only go before the public every six years.
House Democrats have crushed Republicans in fundraising, and have put enough seats in play to give themselves a good chance of flipping a razor-thin disadvantage of 212 seats to the Republicans’ 220, with three seats vacant.
They have also been able to tout achievements from previous sessions while pointing out that this Republican-led term — beset by infighting — has been one of the most dysfunctional and unproductive in the body’s 235-year history.
Keith Gaddie, a politics professor at Texas Christian University, said control of the House was within Democrats’ grasp — but he isn’t betting the farm on the party fulfilling its potential.
“The reality is, literally anything can happen in terms of control,” he told AFP.
“We won’t really know until the voting — and the litigation — are over. Because litigation is the final act of any election these days.”
