Jan. 10 (UPI) — The United States simultaneously reported shrinking greenhouse gas emissions and a growing economy for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, but may still fall short of global and domestic climate goals, according to an independent U.S. researcher report released Wednesday.
The Rhodium Group’s 2023 preliminary greenhouse gas emission estimates showed U.S. emissions were down by 1.9%, following two years of growth in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic in 2020, while the economy also expanded by 2.4%.
However, to meet Paris Climate Agreement GHG reduction goals, the Rhodium Group said the United States must average a 6.9% decline in emissions every year from 2024 through 2030.
“A decline in economy-wide emissions is a step in the right direction, but that rate of decline needs to more than triple and sustain at that level every year from 2024 through 2030 in order to meet the U.S.’s climate target under the Paris Agreement of a 50-52% reduction in emissions,” the Rhodium Group said ian statement.
The 2023 emissions decline was driven by an 8% drop in GHG emissions in the power sector and a 4% decline in residential and commercial buildings. But transportation sector emissions were up 1.6% over 2022 levels while industrial emissions rose 1%.
Transportation and industrial are the highest and second highest emissions sectors respectively.
Within the power sector coal is continuing a long-term decline, accounting for just 17% of all U.S. power generation in 2023. Natural gas and renewable power are replacing it while nuclear power generation surpassed coal for just the second time in U.S. history in 2023.
The research organization said U.S. emissions stayed below pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and dropped to 17.2% below 2005 levels even as the economy continued to grow.
“The U.S. economy continued its post-pandemic growth, with GDP expanding at a projected annual rate of 2.4% in 2023, buoyed by increases in consumer and government spending,” the Rhodium Group statement said. “Inflation remains elevated and, though lower than in 2022, is creating headwinds across the economy, but particularly in the energy sector.”
Looking ahead, Rhodium Group said it’s still too early to say whether the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act will reach their full emissions-cutting goals by 2030.
Rhodium Group researchers project that those two laws will drive large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over time.
