After existing home sales unexpectedly ticked up in October, analysts expected new home sales to slow after their recent resurgence (-1.8% MoM). They were right... BUT... the magnitude is mind-boggling!
New Home Sales collapsed 17.3% MoM in October. That is the largest MoM drop since July 2013
Source: Bloomberg
That MoM plunge dragged sales down 9.4% YoY to 610k SAAR - the lowest since Nov 2022
Source: Bloomberg
Of course, all the revisions are lower...
Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which tore through parts of the Southeast, delayed sales in the nation’s biggest housing region and dragged down sales overall.
Sales in the South decreased 28% to 339,000, the slowest pace since April 2020. Sales also fell in the West, but rose in the Northeast and the Midwest.
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that the median sale price of a new home increased to $437,300 in October, the highest in 14 months.
Does this mean November's data will see a massive surge in new home sales? ...even as rates have increased significantly?
