The outcome of Tuesday’s knife-edge US election is unlikely to have much of an impact on the tepid ties between Washington and Ankara, although presidential chemistry might help, experts say.
Long gone is the closeness of the 1990s when the United States and Turkey saw each other as indispensable allies.
Following an extended period of soul searching and crisis, the two NATO allies have settled into an uneasy if formulaic alliance where they agree to disagree on many issues while keeping dialogue open.
“Today, it looks like both have decided to agree on some issues, disagree on others and look for areas of cooperation,” Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told AFP.
Such areas include Africa “where Turkey has built influence, and Muslim Eurasia, where Turkey has historic influence, where the two could work together”, he said.
But many issues have soured ties.
In 2019, Washington removed Ankara from its F-35 fighter jet programme in retaliation for Turkey’s decision to acquire an advanced Russian missile defence system.
Turkey has long nursed a grudge over Washington’s alliance with a Kurdish militia in its battle against Islamic State insurgents in Syria.
And Ankara’s binary foreign policy choices have infuriated Washington, notably its ties with Russia and China and refusal to join Western sanctions against Moscow.
A bridge too far?
In a Brookings commentary, Rich Outzen said US-Turkish ties had always had their difficulties but now there was a sense things were too complicated to resolve.
“A view has gained currency in Washington centred on the premise that US-Turkish tensions may not be worth solving,” he wrote.
“According to this view, Washington has little to gain from addressing Turkish concerns, Ankara can’t or won’t make transactions in good faith, or has adopted positions so irreconcilable with US and Western interests that there is no point in trying.”
The reluctance of outgoing US President Joe Biden to talk to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not helped.
Biden fell out of favour when he called Erdogan “an autocrat” in a New York Times interview in 2020 before being elected.
During his time in office, Biden has never visited Turkey, nor host Erdogan.
A White House meeting planned for May was postponed.
Things eased when Ankara lifted its veto on Sweden joining NATO, with Washington in January approving the sale of F-16 warplanes to Turkey.
But that momentum has stalled, with a deepening gap between Erdogan and Biden over Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war.
Turkish officials decline to say who they would prefer to win.
But some pundits suggest Donald Trump, who was in office in 2016-2020, could be better, given the Republican candidate’s personal rapport with Erdogan.
-‘No positive memories’-
From a broader perspective, some believe it would be “more beneficial” for Turkey if the Democrats remained in power in the United States, said foreign policy analyst Serkan Demirtas.
“Proponents of a Kamala Harris-led administration argue that the Trump era did not leave any positive memories in Turkish-American relations,” he told AFP.
“The deep crises and Trump’s attacks targeting the Turkish economy left Ankara in a very difficult situation.”
In 2018, the US Treasury imposed sanctions on Turkey’s justice and interior ministers over the detention of a US pastor, causing the Turkish lira to plummet to historic lows.
And Trump’s backing for Israel could spell trouble as the Middle East teeters on the brink of all-out conflict.
“A possible Trump win is considered risky for Ankara amid the growing risk of an Israel-Iran conflict,” Demirtas said.
In an interview published on Sunday in Hurriyet newspaper, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the outcome of the US ballot could aggravate regional tensions.
“Depending on the US election result, (Israeli Prime Minister) Netanyahu’s expansionist strategy in the region may increase,” he said, apparently alluding to a Trump win.
When the billionaire businessman was in office, he cultivated a personal relationship with Erdogan, who visited the White House in 2017 and 2019.
Trump agreed to visit in 2018 but never made it.
Although “presidential chemistry” — or the lack of it — would likely impact future ties, it was unlikely to change the modalities of the relationship, Cagaptay said.
