Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Arctic has been considered a politically neutral zone, marked by the peaceful international cooperation of scientists.
But, as Statista's Anna Fleck reports, as the Arctic ice melts and more land and sea becomes accessible, opportunities for resource extraction and maritime trade routes are opening up, making it increasingly attractive to vying global powers, with some observers questioning confidence in its stability.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is considered a turning point in Arctic relations. At the time the war broke out, Russia had been chairing the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum that promotes cooperation and coordination between the Arctic States, Arctic Indigenous Peoples and other Arctic inhabitants, covering a range of issues - crucially, excluding military security.
Seven of the eight Arctic Council members (all but Russia) promptly decided to boycott meetings over the war and only met again in 2023 to oversee the handover of the chairmanship to Norway. Without Russia, which is so large that its northern border makes up 53 percent of the Arctic coastline, the Arctic Council faces criticism over its international legitimacy, as it can no longer claim to be separate from geopolitical conflicts. In 2024, Russia then suspended annual payments to the organization until the council’s full activities involving all members resumed. Some virtual meetings started up again last year with Russian participation.
Russia has a larger military presence in the Arctic than NATO and has been investing in and upgrading its Soviet-era facilities. Chatham House, a UK think tank, says this is defensive in nature and that the Kremlin is opposed to the idea of starting a conflict in the Arctic. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Moscow is rather “pursuing economic ambitions, protecting its second-strike nuclear capabilities and projecting power into the Central Arctic, Bering Sea and North Atlantic”.
The Arctic Institute adds to this, saying that Russia’s control of the North Sea Route (NSR) would give an “economic and diplomatic lever with which to extend their regional influence”, highlighting how the Russian Northern Fleet has increased its surface and underwater monitoring of the route. The U.S. Department of Defense takes a stronger rhetoric, stating in its 2024 Arctic Strategy that Russia’s maritime infrastructure could allow it to enforce “excessive and illegal maritime claims” along the NSR between the Bering Strait and Kara Strait in the future. The document also highlights new logistical challenges in the region due to climate change as well as U.S. concern over the competition of a co-operating Russia and China, the latter of which has also shown interest in being a part of the region's developments, calling itself a “near-Arctic state”.
NATO too has carried out drills and increased its might in the arena, with the addition of Sweden and Finland to the group last year. The U.S. DoD says it is monitoring developments and improving surveillance and early warning systems in the vast region to “ensure the Arctic does not become a strategic blind spot.” Data published by Foreign Policy illustrates how in Europe, Norway has 13 Arctic bases, including a new addition, Camp Viking, a UK training ground for Royal Marines Commandos.
This source shows the U.S. to have nine bases in Alaska in addition to those in Greenland and Iceland. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s reiteration of wanting to buy Greenland in the past weeks, Washington has said it has no plans to increase the U.S.' current military footprint there. Observers note that continued tensions and military buildup on both sides has the increased risk of miscalculation.
