Orange futures in New York are on track for the sharpest weekly drop in 57 years. Over the past several weeks, the market has been engulfed in a downright panic, with prices sliding for ten consecutive sessions. The catalyst behind the sharp selloff remains unclear.
By Friday afternoon, the weekly percentage change for orange juice futures in New York was 22.5%, marking the worst weekly decline since the first week of November 1968.
OJ futs established a record high of $5.5 a pound in mid-December on news that Florida's citrus production fell to the lowest levels since 1930. Since the peak, about two months later, the maximum drawdown has been a whopping 41%.
The futures spread between the March and May orange juice contracts has shifted from backwardation to contango, signaling a drastic change in market dynamics and potential easing of near-term supply constraints.
No single factor is driving the sharp decline in orange juice contracts - that we can see. There's no word on whether drivers include improved weather conditions in Florida and Brazil or a liquidity crunch forced long positions to unwind in panic. Whatever the catalyst, the selloff was swift and severe.
The OJ crash brings to mind the movie "Trading Places," starring Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd, in which the duo profits from a collapse in frozen concentrated orange juice futures contracts.
The iconic line from the movie: "Sell, Mortimer! Sell!"
