Iran has vehemently denied that it was behind the weekend drone attack on a Jordanian base near the Syrian border which killed three American troops, and according to a revised figure injured 34. A one-way drone reportedly slammed into a tent which was housing soldiers at the base, which is why casualties are so high, but questions remain.
Tehran has called the accusations that it was behind the attack "baseless" after President Biden on Sunday vowed "We shall respond". Within the hours after news of the attack on Jordan's Tower 22 base there were widespread reports that Iranian allied groups in Iraq and Syria were temporarily evacuating their bases, expending retaliatory airstrikes.
Iranian allies are now bracing for a major US response to the deadly attack on the Jordanian outpost, according to the Wall Street Journal. Already there's been an apparent Israeli airstrike on a Damascus suburb, resulting in the deaths of two people, said to be targeting an "Iranian-backed group".
Even as Iran has denied involvement, an Iranian-linked group called "Islamic Resistance of Iraq" has taken responsibility for the Jordanian base attack. The core of the 'resistance' coalition in Iraq continues to be Kateeb Hizballah however, as Washington Post explains further of the details:
"Tower 22", the U.S. base in NE Jordan where three American troops were just killed, overlooks a Syrian refugee camp called Rukban, where 15,000 people have been living for years. It is also near the Al-Tanf Garrison, where a couple hundred U.S. troops are based.
This is a crucial node between Iraq and Syria that Iranian militias have long sought to control. There have been several drone attacks on Tanf since Oct. 7. This is a brazen escalation.
The group that will claim responsibility calls themselves the "Islamic Resistance of Iraq," but that's really a post Oct 7 umbrella group of IRGC sponsored militias. The actual attackers were likely Kateeb Hizballah with support of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujab and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq.
The Washington Post analysis goes on to claim that Islamic Resistance of Iraq has direct IRGC backing and was formed in order to "target Americans" - also at a moment the Iraqi government has made clear that it wants US troops out of the country.
Iran appears to be seeking to cool tensions while bracing for potential strikes...
#Iran's ambassador to #Syria is now interestingly distancing himself from the Reuters report which suggests an #IRGCterrorists command center was targeted by #Israel today near Sayyidah Zaynab. Avoiding pressure to have to respond. pic.twitter.com/GciUhDFE61
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) January 29, 2024
The three US troop deaths constitute the first American military fatalities since Oct.7 and the war in Gaza began, though there have been over 150 attacks targeting US bases and outposts in Iraq and Syria. While the initial assumption has been that the drone was launched from Syria, this has ultimately yet to be determined pending a Pentagon investigation.
Meanwhile, Axios reports that Biden's national security team convened several times on Sunday. Biden and his top officials say that a "significant military response" against pro-Iranian militias is coming. "We don't want war but those who are behind this attack need to feel our response," one unnamed admin official told Axios on Sunday evening.
What remains clear is that the US has once again backed itself into a corner in the Middle East. Sporadic 'deterrent' strikes either on militant camps or Houthi positions related to the Red Sea crisis have not done anything, and yet bigger American military intervention would inevitably lead to another all-out US war in the Middle East and thus a new endless quagmire.
