Global Outrage At Gaza Hospital Strike
After news broke of an air strike against Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, Muslims protested and rioted in multiple countries amid reports that the Israel Defense Forces had bombed the hospital.
Did The IDF Bomb The Hospital?
By 4pm New York time yesterday, 70% of bettors on the Manifold prediction market believed that to be the case. By 5am Wednesday, the percentage of bettors believing the IDF bombed the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza had dropped to just 7%.
Why The 90% Drop In Bets That The IDF Bombed It?
One of the main reasons seems to be dawn in Gaza, shedding light on the parking lot where the weapon hit. The lack of a large impact crater, and the limited damage radius, appears to suggest the weapon was not a bomb, as the thread by Nathan Ruser below explains. Ruser also offers evidence that the casualty numbers claimed by Gaza officials seem high relative to the structural damage visible and past truck bombings.
First, I should mention that this thread isn't a forensic or expert investigation, I'm just sharing what I see and what I've seen previously. Nor am I attributing one way or another. Nor does this negate the countless civilians killed in Israel's campaign.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
Indeed, within 10m of the impact site there are cars which appear mostly undamaged. pic.twitter.com/yUs2MQI2VD
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
Footage from ground level this morning shows essentially no crater. And very little damage to the building around 20m away from the impact site. pic.twitter.com/xnhOSjYf9E
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
Namely because the 'before' image is from two days prior to the strike, I believe there were reports of the hospital being minorly damaged in strikes during that period so it is possible that the roof damage is not from the same time as the explosion.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
Compare the damage from photos of rocket impacts in Ashkelon from last weekend. The only real difference is that this explosion appears to have involved more accelerant (which would track with reporting that this barrage was aimed at Tel Aviv). pic.twitter.com/NcI0Vp6OlI
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
Compare this to airstrikes in Gaza which tend to leave a much larger crater and cause a lot more damage, they also almost always leave big deposits of concrete dust after striking a structure, though the construction of this particular hospital could be different. pic.twitter.com/xkK6Pg0NSu
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
Also see this https://t.co/7blIvu31am to show the scale of the structural damage and concrete dust.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
It is also more than possible that there were many people in the area. And the casualties could be quite high, especially if people were out in the open and there was falling, burning fuel.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
But 500's incredibly high number, honestly implausible. Overlaying the area of damage on Google Earth - keep in mind this is mostly from burning cars NOT the explosion - it is 228m2.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
This is that sort of crowd density (assuming there were no survivors which is also implausible). pic.twitter.com/A6JoWTht7q
In July 2016 a truck bomb in Baghdad killed ~350, this is the damage it did.
— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 18, 2023
In Oct 2017, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed 500+, this is the damage it did.
In Oct 2022, a truck bomb in Mogadishu killed ~125, this is the damage it did.
Compare any of that to the above. pic.twitter.com/MHbTaYnlVz
Consistent With Yesterday's Missile Analysis
That is consistent with GeoConfirmed's analysis yesterday that a Palestinian missile had exploded in midair and one of the pieces fell on the hospital's parking lot.
GeoConfirmed ISR-PAL.
— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) October 17, 2023
A missile launched by Palestinian Groups exploded mid-air and one of the pieces fell on the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital's yard.
31.504822, 34.46169
Before reacting READ our thread.https://t.co/qbpUGQk89o
1/X
GeoConfirmed did add a caution at the time:
Important note:
Our conclusions are based on our geolocations: That doesn't mean that they are THE truth, just what we think is highly likely based on our geolocations(facts) and logic/reason.
We are geolocators, not official investigators.
Do not take this conclusion as proven fact!
To be sure what really happened different official investigations are needed.
One thing this incident illustrates is that the propaganda battle will be an important front in this conflict.
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