Tariffs And Deportations Can Be An Economic Boon For Us

The big economic news this weekend has been President Trump imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, in retaliation for the massive illegal migration from both countries. 

Some have suggested that Trump's tariffs, along with his crackdown on illegal migration, will be calamitous for the American economy, but in reality, both policies will open up opportunities for American workers and investors. We mentioned one such opportunity for American investors last week: betting on a leading auto insurer, as the departure of illegal aliens who cause a disproportionate share of car accidents should boost its bottom line. 

In today's guest post, our friend Kevin Dolan mentions another opportunity: using robotics to replace migrant farm workers. Before we get to that, a brief reminder about our top names. 

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Now on to Kevin's excellent guest post. 

Who's Going to Pick the Fruit, Chuds?

EXIT guys are reporting seeing many new businesses on BizBuySell — listed by owners with foreign surnames, and priced to move.

There are also a whole lot of Boomer production businesses that depend on artificially depressed labor markets, whose proprietors are trying to retire, and who have neither the capital nor the technical savvy to modernize them.

Trump’s detractors are right that mass deportation will tank particular sectors of the economy — but that just means those sectors are on sale.

What if a group of young engineers started buying up distressed illegal-labor businesses, staffed them for a period to understand their production process, and then built the machines to replace themselves?

A couple EXIT guys already work in manufacturing, and the processes they describe are not impossible to automate — they just involve capital outlays that the current owners don’t want to assess or pay for.

The combination of tariffs, deregulation, and mass deportation will make automation cost-effective, and draw more engineering talent into physical industries.

A fund that invested in such businesses could employ our guys at every tier of skill and experience — smart guys with no resume could work the line for a while at a fair wage while helping the engineers streamline the business, eventually leading teams, learning how to automate and problem-solve, and then quarterbacking other projects.

Putting smart, dynamic, upwardly-mobile people in contact with real-world production processes would thread the needle of the dreaded Plumber Discourse — these jobs would exist strictly to be automated away.

But the fund would hang on to the businesses — and as the guys skilled up, we could pass the torch to our teenage sons as a kind of professional finishing school, to gauge their aptitudes and connect them with mentors.

The problem of young, smart Americans “not wanting to work” is rooted in a rational assessment that the work doesn't lead anywhere worth going — but we can change that calculus for our kids.

Sane immigration policy will create billions of dollars of opportunities like these, allowing us to generate wealth and develop our own people — but it’s going to take faith and effort from people with the capital and expertise to seize them.

Stay tuned.

EXIT News

• Natal Conference tickets are on sale, and early bird pricing will be ending soon. Use offer code NATALISM for 10% off.

• On last week’s full-group call, we has a private Q&A with Bog Beef from Good Ol Boyz about Patronage. Recording will be available soon for subscribers.

• EXIT Book Club on The Diamond Age by Neal Stephenson, Tuesday 2/4. Get started if you haven’t already.

• On tomorrow night’s call, we will have a Q&A with Indian Bronson about Family Offices — how investments are assessed, how they identify partners, etc.

• Our Homeschool Call has begun with a UK EXIT man who has been a private instructor at several elite private schools in Europe. Great insights on the cultivation of disciplined creativity.

• EXIT guy Tony is restarting the Scouting Call to continue developing our curriculum, based on Clay Martin’s “irregular ODA” concept. Members can check out the #scouting channel to learn more.

• Houston members-only meetup 2/7 — check out the #texas channel for details.

• Cocktail hour invites for Seattle and Salt Lake City coming soon for subscribers.