Will Trump Pay A Price For The Ukraine Deal?

Confusion About Trump's Role In The Ukraine Bill

After the House of Representatives passed legislation sending more money to the Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel, while throwing in a few billion dollars for NGOs facilitating the invasion of America's Southern border, #NeverTrump Republicans and neocons called it a defeat for Trump. 

But as independent journalist Michael Tracey (and Senator Lindsey Graham) have pointed out, Trump's support was key in getting the bill passed by Congress. 

Can It Be Stopped In The Senate? 

As Senator Mike Lee points out, there's still a chance to stop this in the Senate, but it would require 41 Senators to vote against it. 

That seems more likely to happen if someone got Trump to flip against this, but have any Republicans in Congress called Trump out on this? 

Has Senator Rand Paul?

Or Rep. Thomas Massie? 

Or Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene? 

It's safer to blame Speaker Johnson than the most popular Republican in America. 

Will Trump Pay A Price For This? 

Georgetown Professor Arta Moeini raised that prospect on X yesterday: 

I believe Trump's greatest gift was the intuitive way he understood his base and channeled their frustrations. He's a savvy politician; alarm bells must be going off in his head now. The Democrats & the Security State won doubly yesterday:

1. They got their billions for their globalist agenda without lifting a finger for the Border
2. They discredited Trump in the eyes of a good portion of his long-standing, loyal supporters who had stayed with him since 2016 and his war with the Bushes, thereby significantly diminishing his chances for returning to the White House.

I continue to believe Trump abhors war, seeing it as ugly and inexpedient, but his repeated backing of Mike Johnson to allow him to betray the trust of millions of conservatives could become a costly mistake. He has now made the error most politicians make when they go Establishment, trading the love of their base for nice headlines in CNN & the New York Times and ceasing to be the radical force for change that propelled them to power in the first place.

Let's pause here to note that Trump hasn't even gotten those nice headlines; on the contrary, the establishment is still trying to bankrupt him and send him to prison for the rest of his life. Back to Prof. Moeini:

For all their differences and mutual antipathy, this is something Trump shares with Obama.

If Trump loses in November, Historians will remember the betrayal of April 20th as the reason why.

That seems like it will depend on whether any Republicans opposed to this bill bring up Trump's role in getting it passed. 

A Quick Trading Note

Friday's crash in chipmakers may have created some opportunities ahead of earnings. We have a trade teed up to take advantage of that. If you'd like a heads up when we place it, feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below. 

If you want to stay in touch.

You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and create hedged portfolios on our website. You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X here, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we're using that for our occasional emails now).