The View From Belarus
In a video uploaded today, the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, talks to Ukrainian reporter Diana Panchenko about the origins of the current war, the state of Ukraine's counteroffensive, and what will happen if they don't negotiate an armistice with Russia. I've set the time signature on the video below to the part where Lukashenko starts talking about the counteroffensive and what comes next. A few key points:
- Lukashenko claims Ukrainians have lost 45,000 men killed or wounded during the current counteroffensive.
- He says most of the ideologically motivated Ukrainian troops (the Nazi LARPers) are already dead.
- He says Russia's army today is more capable and advanced than it was last year (on this point, Ukraine supporter and military analyst Edward Luttwak seems to agree).
It was unfair to expect great victories from Ukraine's offensive against the much improved Russian army just because it received some Leopards. But a balanced US peace plan with plebiscites could still work because Russia needs its war exiles back & also access to the West.
— Edward N Luttwak (@ELuttwak) July 27, 2023 - Lukashenko warns that Russia has 250,000 trained volunteers in reserve, and if the Ukrainians don't negotiate a peace with Russia, Russia will eventually capture the entire Black Sea coast, leaving Ukraine as a rump state, at which point Poland may seek to grab its historic territories in Western Ukraine.
This portion of the video above is only a few minutes long and is worth watching. In the first part of the video, about the origins of the current situation, in response to the reporter's question, Lukashenko argues that all the countries involved, including Russia, bear responsibility for it.
From One Disaster To Another
Shifting topics from the disaster in Ukraine to the diversity-fueled disaster in Hawaii, on our trading Substack today, we posted two ways to potentially profit from the crisis. As we noted there, sometimes it's best to go short when there's blood in the streets:
The old adage, variously attributed to Bernard Baruch, John D. Rockefeller, and Baron Rothschild is to “buy when there’s blood in the streets”, i.e., buy when prices are down due to a disaster. But sometimes it makes sense to sell short when there’s blood in the streets.
That’s what we did back in March, when we bet against Silicon Valley Bank when it announced it was headed for bankruptcy. We would have made more money betting against it earlier, but we ended up making 67% on that trade, so not too shabby.
We also have a couple of trades teed up on the long side, taking advantage of the recent pullback in the market. Feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below, if you'd like a heads up when we place them.
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