Zelensky Likely To Face Power Struggle At Home During First Year Of Trump

Things have looked bleak for Ukraine's chances on the battlefield, but The Economist has forewarned that a political struggle awaits Ukraine domestically. President Volodymyr Zelensky's grip on power could be slipping, and he'll likely face a serious power struggle in 2025.

"If elections were held tomorrow, Mr Zelensky would struggle to repeat the success of the landslide win he secured in 2019.... Internal polling seen by The Economist suggests he would fare badly in a run-off against Valery Zaluzhny, the other wartime hero," The Economist in a bleak assessment which is far more negative concerning his future leadership than the D.C.-insider publication has ever been.

The report details that amid daily, grim funeral processions in various neighborhoods of the capital, anxiety builds concerning the future Trump administration and what his promises to end the war will bring.

"Will his new administration tilt Ukraine’s way or Russia’s? Can he impose a ceasefire? Will elections follow?" - The Economist questions, describing the mood on the streets. 

"For now, there are two dates on Kyiv politicos’ lips: January 20th 2025, the date of Mr Trump’s inauguration, the first moment for any possible ceasefire and lifting of military law, and May 25th, the earliest mooted date for an election."

Zelensky has previously faced fierce criticism for canceling last spring's scheduled election, in the name of martial law and defense of the nation amid the Russian invasion. Some US Republicans in Congress had at the time warned that this could be reason to withhold arms and further funding, seeing in it a serious anti-democratic tendency.

As for this spring, Zelensky is likely to keep extending his term, while keeping the elections ban in place:

The presidential office denies it is preparing for a vote. Most sources remain sceptical that it will happen. It is not the first time the capital has been awash with rumour. There are issues of organization and legitimacy: how can a splintered nation at war hold elections? The country also has yet to endure what many assume will be a difficult winter. “Engaging in electioneering right now would be suicidal,” says Yaroslav Zhelezhnyak, an opposition MP.

But this means he may be forced to enter a US-backed deal with Moscow, which could mean political destabilization from the 'enemies within' - such as far right Azov and Right Sector hardliners - who will do anything to thwart and sabotage peace with Russia, given it would mean territorial concessions.

Either Zelensky gets stuck in a bad deal for Ukraine, or he faces military collapse in the east. But a former adviser of his explains, "Zelensky has only one way out to get out with an intact reputation. That is to run elections [without him] and go down in history as the man who united the nation in war."

The Economist's correspondent has observed there does seem to be some movement on the ground:

Still, some groundwork appears to have begun. Regional election headquarters are mobilizing, and work on candidate lists is beginning. The representatives of one likely presidential rival to Volodymyr Zelensky say that Ukraine needs elections; but they worry about making a public statement to this effect, fearing a fierce backlash from the presidential office.

Indeed, Zelensky may be plotting his own graceful political exit amid the many unknowns of the Trump administration. His star power has also long ago faded, as was on display during his last visit to Washington.

It remains, however, that Zelensky has already long banned opposition parties and media, and sought to suppress the Russian language, angering a huge segment of the population...

Ukrainian officials are further growing increasingly nervous over who is in the administration and who is out. They are "disturbed" by Trump’s decision not to offer a national security post to Mike Pompeo. Instead, "The worry now is that Mr. Trump’s offer to Ukraine will come to resemble something closer to ideas put forward by J.D. Vance, the incoming vice president."