A Trump mystery makes election outcome even murkier

"Low Ceiling – High Floor." It's one of the few mantras that has remained true – over this past election year – the notion that "Trump has his number." 

In Fox News national polls, the former president has remained the choice of 48-50% of the U.S. electorate since the primaries started. His support didn’t dip despite convictions, and it stayed strong when incumbent President Joe Biden was the apparent nominee as well as when Biden gave a well-received State of the Union speech in March. 

Trump’s support didn’t appreciably go up even after he survived and showed courage following an assassination attempt – and went on to have a flawless and unified convention. It didn’t even go up when his then opponent (Biden) belly-flopped in the debate and Democrats were fleeing their nominee.

Trump’s support stayed steady even when the Democrats quickly subbed in Vice President Kamala Harris to be their Party’s nominee – and much of the media was reporting that she had a great surge of momentum. 

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Even then, Trump’s support stayed solid in the range of 48-50%.

All the most reputable polls – the ones that focus on using a random probability sample and live phone interviews-- consistently show Trump’s support staying solid with almost half of the American electorate.

Sometimes, the polls have Harris in the lead, sometimes she may even be behind. But it’s unlikely to matter: In both 2016 and 2020, while Trump may have lost the national popular vote, he did far better in the swing states. In 2016, even though he got only 46.1% of the popular vote, he still won the Electoral College and the presidency. In 2020, he got 46.9% of the national vote – and came remarkably close in the Electoral College.

I apologize in advance, but now I’m about to go "deep in the weeds" on this topic. There is a surprising pattern that is important if you want to understand the American voter – and appreciate why campaigns are run the way they are.

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Historically, Democrats dominate in the coastal cities. They do well among college-educated voters (who are more likely to live in large cities) and are advantaged among minority voters (who are also more likely to live in large cities). As a result, the Democrats do especially well in large states like California and New York – whose Electoral College votes are almost certainly going to go to Kamala Harris – by wide margins. 

The Democrats, in essence, will "waste their votes" – since whether a candidate wins a state by 5 million (Biden’s 2020 margin in California) or 75,000 (Trump’s 2020 margin in North Carolina), only one candidate will still get all the Electoral College votes from those states.

Most people anticipate that this November, Trump will once again do better in the swing states than he does in the national popular vote. It’s why people like me feel that even if he loses the popular vote by a margin of 52-48, he’s got a solid chance to win the Electoral College and return to the White House.

But… hold a minute. There have been some weird findings from recent polls – before Tuesday night’s debate – both nationally and in key swing states.

The high-quality polls taken in the swing states (Fox News, Quinnipiac, Sienna/NYTimes) suggest that Trump is actually doing as well as or better in the national popular vote (48%) as he does in the key swing states (the large states of Pennsylvania and North Carolina as well as Michigan and Wisconsin). Similarly, Harris is doing as well or better in those swing states as she is in the national polls. 

We’ve only used polls here that leverage the most reliable methodology. Other averages use all types of polls, but even then, the same pattern (or non-pattern) emerges: Trump does not seem stronger in the swing states than he does nationally. And that’s … interesting. 

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This is different from the lead up to the 2020 election. Then, polls suggested that Trump would do anywhere from 2 to 4 points better in the swing states than he would do nationally. Yes, the 2020 polls (both national and state) did underestimate Trump’s support – but the comparison was still accurate and noteworthy: Trump was predicted (and did) better in the swing states than he did nationally.

I confess that I don’t have an easy way to explain this. There are three possibilities:

1. Campaign Spending/Media 

Both Democratic and Republican campaigns have invested heavily in these states – both in television/digital advertising and in door-to-door outreach. For much of the year, the Democrats had a significant financial advantage – and that could be cutting into the natural advantage that Trump should see in those states. Only about 12% of voters live in the swing states and so the national polling doesn’t really reflect that impact.

2. Minority Support 

Polls have suggested that Trump is cutting into traditional Democratic minority support – that could be helping him in the national polling – but have less of an impact in these battleground states.

3. Population Shifts 

There are continuous shifts in state populations, with many moving to sunbelt states such as North Carolina. Indeed, in the Fox poll, Harris was leading by 8 points among voters who had just moved to the state, while Trump led among the far larger group of long-standing residents.

And it could just be noise. These are poll findings – not actual votes. Polls are just rough estimates, so they could be missing the slight advantage Trump is expected to see in the swing states.

I will hold to my expectation that Trump will likely do two points better in the swing states than he does nationally – but it’s worth keeping an eye on this anomaly as we head to Election Day. Watch to see if the pattern of the past two presidential elections continues to hold – or if we’re seeing a shift in the political map of the country. 

In politics, as in hunting, it’s worth keeping an eye on anything that deviates from one’s expectations.

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Arnon Mishkin is director of the Fox News decision desk.