It's clear now that the 2024 election has become an referendum on Joe Biden's presidency
Biden tells Arizona voters ‘Elect me, I’m in the 20th century’
President Joe Biden appeared to confuse centuries in a speech to Arizona voters.
Democrats are reeling after Wednesday’s Department of Labor report showed consumer prices rose in March, likely delaying the Federal Reserve’s effort to cut rates ahead of November’s election. While the Biden campaign was projecting an air of confidence due to a surge in the polls showing Joe Biden and Donald Trump virtually tied, it is evident that the aging and unpopular Democratic president is facing a problem connecting with young voters.
Nothing encapsulates Democratic panic more than former White House chief of staff Ron Klain’s public criticism of the campaign’s economic message. "I think the president is out there too much talking about bridges," Klain said, imploring Biden to focus on the high cost of living affecting everyday people.
Indeed, nowhere is this more true than with young voters struggling to make ends meet. For a campaign whose candidate’s approval rating is reliably underwater, averaging 41%, Biden cannot afford to shrink his coalition from 2020, especially among voters under 30 whom he won by 24 points, 59% to 35%.
PRESIDENT BIDEN ANNOUNCES NEW STUDENT LOAN FORGIVENESS PLANS THAT COULD BENEFIT 23 MILLION AMERICANS
A recent Fox News poll shows Biden is at risk of losing this coalition as Donald Trump currently carries voters under 30 by 21 points, 46% to 25%. Worse, 1-in-5 (18%) young voters, feeling alienated by both parties and the political system more generally, say they will vote for RFK Jr. Moreover, Biden has lost 14-points among voters of color, including Black and Hispanic voters, a group he won 71% of in 2020.
It is in this context that we must see Biden’s effort to cancel student debt for 30 million borrowers as part of a desperate plea to hold the youth vote. However, Americans, especially young voters, have hardly taken notice of the program due to myriad factors: inflation, the crisis at the Southern border, and devastating foreign policy in Israel and Ukraine.
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While Biden’s program could provide some benefit, it does not speak to the majority (53%) of 18 to 34-year-olds who do not have a college degree. This group, which reliably swings for Trump by 31 points, has been hit the hardest by record high rent and food prices.
Put another way, Biden lacks a comprehensive, coherent message to appeal to young voters. However, we anticipate, given Florida, Arizona, and Alabama’s strict abortion bans enacted in the past weeks, a substantial effort to turn out young, especially female, voters will focus on reproductive rights.
Former President Trump has made it clear, in a public statement on Monday, that he will leave the issue of abortion to the states. Trump’s decision is a tactical one, a compromise which leaves the potential for a weakened Democratic Party to make inroads with young people, an issue which is now glaringly obvious and apparent from the highest levels on down.
So far, the president has run an extremely partisan campaign, principally speaking to Democrats and Democratic-leaning undecided voters, two groups he has always been likely to carry. And, while it was once an open question, it is now clear to us that this election has undoubtedly become a referendum on the incumbent, Joe Biden.
As campaign season heats up, Biden must do much more than provide student debt relief to make his case to young voters, a group who will no doubt make the difference in securing key swing states this November.
Carly Cooperman is CEO of Schoen Cooperman Research.
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Douglas E. Schoen has more than 40 years of experience as a pollster and political consultant. He served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton and to the presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. Schoen is founder and partner of Schoen Cooperman Research.
