No matter who wins, these events drove the narrative
Is the Election Going to a Photo Finish?
Trump and Harris make their closing arguments.
Presidential campaigns are first and foremost about messaging. In any race, the campaigns and the media push the importance of certain ideas or moments in the hopes that they will saturate the public consciousness. But out of hundreds of attempts at this, only a handful succeed.
In 2024, during my travels to over two dozen towns and cities, there were five moments that stand out for capturing the imagination of the electorate, and shaping voting preferences of Americans. Each changed the narrative of the race and carved out a new direction for it.
No matter who wins, these are the stories that got us here.
The Butler Assassination Attempt
In an echo of the original shot heard round the world, Donald Trump’s near miss in Butler, Pa., that left a defiant former president shot, bleeding and pumping his fist to the crowd is the most iconic moment of this election. For Trump supporters, the shooting reinforced what they already felt about him: that he was strong, courageous, and maybe even a bit obstinate.
TOPSHOT - Republican candidate Donald Trump is seen with blood on his face surrounded by secret service agents as he is taken off the stage at a campaign event at Butler Farm Show in Butler, Pennsylvania, July 13, 2024. (Photo by Rebecca DROKE / AFP) (Photo by REBECCA DROKE/AFP via Getty Images) (Rebecca Droke/AFP via Getty Images)
For independents and even some Democrats I spoke with, Trump’s brush with death sent a clear signal that it was time for the dangerous rhetoric of calling him "Hitler" to stop, and for a while, it did. But not for long.
Also, at that moment, many people, including two ship workers I spoke with in Toledo, Ohio, thought the race was over. One of them looked at the TV, then at me, and said, "That’s it, he’s gonna win." And that brings us directly to our second moment.
Biden’s Timing Dropping Out
Easily the most important, historic and consequential event in the 2024 race was President Joe Biden’s decision to exit the contest. And it wasn’t just the choice, it was very much the timing.
Nobody knows what role the attempt on Trump's life played in Biden’s decision, but for weeks before, he and his allies insisted he wasn’t going anywhere despite his bizarre and troubling debate performance against Trump. It was only after the shooting, and a triumphant Republican National Convention that celebrated Trump’s survival, that the pressure on Biden became too much to bear.
Bob Woodward's new book details witness accounts of President Biden's alleged senility from more than a year before he stepped down from his re-election campaign. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)
Had Biden chosen to drop out in March, Kamala Harris may or may not have won a contested Democratic primary, but she would have had to go through that gauntlet, answering questions and doing interviews. Biden left no time for that.
The comment I heard most commonly from voters on the ground, especially after she disavowed a dozen of her previous progressive positions, was "I just don’t know who she is." But that was going to change.
Harris Starts Doing Interviews
In late August, after weeks of running a ‘Hidin’ Harris’ 2024 campaign in which she refused to do any interviews, the vice president finally sat down for a friendly exchange with NBC News’ Lester Holt, bringing her running mate Tim Walz along. It did not go well. Trying to address her flip-flopping, she said, "My values have not changed," which did not answer the question.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 22: Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center on August 22, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. Delegates, politicians, and Democratic Party supporters are gathering in Chicago, as current Vice President Kamala Harris is named her party's presidential nominee. The DNC takes place from August 19-22. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) (Getty Images)
It got worse weeks later when Fox News Channel’s Bret Baier grilled the veep, who at one point, exasperated, said to the newsman, "You and I both know what I’m talking about," to which Baier, speaking for millions of Americans, replied, "I actually don’t. What are you talking about?"
After that, the most common comment I heard from voters was no longer, "I don’t know who she is," but, "Why can’t she answer any questions?" I even heard this from union guys stumping for Harris in Pennsylvania. If she loses, this will likely be why.
Springfield, Ohio
"They’re eating the cats, They’re eating dogs," Trump said at the presidential debate, to howling accusations of racism from Democrats and the media who argued Trump was endangering the 15,000 Haitian migrants in Springfield, a city of a mere 60,000 residents.
It was classic Trump. First he made the story about himself, picking up on running mate JD Vance’s suggestion that pets were becoming meat, but then, when the dust settled, the story became Springfield itself, and the obvious mismanagement of the migrant asylum program there, which had previously been ignored.
In Springfield, I heard from grateful citizens who were finally being listened to, and it resonated more broadly. One woman in Bedford, Pa., told me, "I don’t care about the cats and dogs, but I am worried about 10,000 migrants being dropped on our doorstep."
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The Teamsters Snub
When the Teamsters refused to endorse Harris for president in late September, it was actually two bombshells in one. First, was the snub itself, and then internal polling that showed Biden had been beating Trump by double digits, but Trump was beating Harris by double digits.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 15: President of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters Sean O’Brien speaks on stage on the first day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)(Getty Images)
This was an earthquake for Democrats who rely heavily on not just the votes of private sector union members, but their organization. In Washington, Pa., around that time, I met a former Teamsters official whose disdain for Harris was so vivid and audible that a waiter had to tell us to quiet down.
This was the first major chink in Harris’ armor. From that point on, the joy and optimism that had permeated her campaign turned into a darker, more fearful message that culminated in words like "Hitler" and "fascist" making their dangerous return to the trail.
Over the coming days or weeks we will know the outcome of this election, but whatever it is, it will have been shaped by unexpected moments that shook the campaign and seized the attention of America’s voters.
Politics can bring the horse of voter interest to water, but can’t make voters drink. These five events did make them drink. And for one side or the other, a bad hangover is soon on its way.
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David Marcus is a columnist living in West Virginia and the author of "Charade: The COVID Lies That Crushed A Nation."
