And after this election, red states will only get redder and blue states bluer
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It’s ironic how some people go to extremes during an election season. People shout from the trees, "If Trump gets elected, I’m leaving the country!" or "If Harris wins, I’m moving to Europe!"
The reality is we are still the greatest country in the world, and nobody is leaving anytime soon, but this election may prompt some internal reshuffling. Over the next four years, we may see Americans change their home state to align with their money and politics.
With inflation, immigration and abortion being three of the top issues this electoral season, more than ever families are considering moving to states that are more aligned with their views.
Nearly 1 in 5 have considered moving because their political views don't align with the majority of people in their area. (Kurt "CyberGuy" Knutsson)
A recent survey done by Realtor.com found that nearly 1 in 4 (23%) Americans say local and national politics highly influence their decision about where to live, especially for millennials, where that number jumps to 33%.
MILLENNIALS AND GEN ZERS ARE FLEEING BLUE STATES IN DROVES. HERE ARE THEIR TOP DESTINATIONS
Local and national politics have a large enough influence on some Americans that nearly 1 in 5 (17%) have considered moving because their political views don't align with the majority of people in their area.
So where would you move based upon some of these top issues?
Wealth, Real Estate and Taxation
There are currently nine states in America that have no state income taxes: Texas, Florida, Tennessee, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nevada, Washington, Alaska and New Hampshire. Washington does levy a state capital gains tax on high earners, but the mix of zero state tax income states is about two-thirds red and one-third blue.
Let’s look at the states with the highest state income taxes in America:
- California (13.3%) – blue
- Hawaii (11%) – blue
- New Jersey (10.75%) – blue
- Oregon (9.9%) – blue
- Minnesota (9.85%) – blue
Let’s look at the states with the highest real estate taxes in America:
- New Jersey (2.21%) – blue
- Illinois (2.05%) – blue
- New Hampshire (1.96%) – blue
- Vermont (1.82%) – blue
- Connecticut (1.82%) – blue
WHY ARE AMERICANS FLEEING THE WEST COAST FOR THIS DEEP RED STATE? FREEDOM AND FRIENDLINESS
Let’s look at the states with the highest sales taxes in America:
- Louisiana- (9.56%) – red
- Tennessee (9.55%) – red
- Arkansas (9.45%) – blue
- Washington (9.38%) – red
- Alabama (9.28%) – red
Let’s look at the states with the most deficits in 10 of the last 15 years:
- New York – blue
- Hawaii – blue
- Connecticut – blue
- Illinois – blue
- New Jersey – blue
- Massachusetts – blue
When it comes to how you fundamentally view taxation for where you choose to live, you might notice the pattern of states that have lower income taxation but have higher taxation on consumption.
Are you for small government or big government? Are you for high state income taxes or higher consumption taxes? Are you for bigger state funded social policies or fewer social policies? Are you for mansion taxes and state capital gains taxes or not?
What the data indicates is that the states run worse financially and those that cost more are predominately blue states.
If you plan to move after the election one factor you may want to consider – outside of weather, your job and family nearby – is whether you want a progressive state that seeks to redistribute wealth through the tax system or one that puts the money in the hands of the people.
Abortion
With Roe v Wade overturned by the Supreme Court, states are beginning to decide on their own abortion policies. In a recent map published by The Wall Street Journal, there are now 17 states where laws or constitutional amendments protecting abortion access have been approved. There are currently 12 states where laws have passed that restrict abortion to about six week or less. Abortion will continue to be a front and center issue that not only divides Americans, but also makes a clearer choice for millennial and generation Z families where they choose to reside. Post-election, you may need to decide how you lean on this highly debated social and religious issue and whether it would decide where you raise your family.
Social Policies
Each state develops its own identity on how to handle issues such as poverty, welfare, infrastructure, health care, sports gambling, marijuana, gun laws, criminal prosecution and education. While all states consider individual rights and autonomy, it’s clear that the cross section of local and state government intervention is paramount for developing these policies.
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Do you believe the state should decide what books should be allowed in the public schools? How does the state handle homelessness? What’s the viewpoint around background checks on guns?
These types of issues and many more may serve as the future springboard for you to decide where you want to live.
Remember the Happiness Index? It ranks countries on their overall happiness, using six categories in these studies, including GDP per capita, social support and healthy life expectancy. Finland, Denmark, Iceland and Sweden all ranked in the top four in the world. Do you wonder why?
We envisioned that America many years ago would adopt the idea of the "melting pot," where various immigrant groups would "melt together," abandoning their individual cultures and eventually becoming fully assimilated into the predominant society. But after this election, we might find that the happiest people will self-select and live in a part of the country that is more homogenized to their social, cultural and financial way of thinking.
If you don’t think it’s happening now, you’re wrong. The movement is underway. And after this election, red states will only get redder and blue states bluer. People want to be around those who think and act like them and it’s unfolding right in front of our eyes.
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Ted Jenkin is CEO and co-founder of Oxygen Financial and president of Exit Stage Left Advisors.
