Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA), a fourth-term conservative who is currently the vice chairman of the House GOP conference, has the Speaker’s gavel within reach and seems to be on the brink of ascending into the presidential line of succession on Wednesday afternoon.
When the House gavels in at noon, it is certainly possible that Johnson–a former conservative talk radio host and columnist who has been active in the religious liberty world of the American right–emerges as the 56th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.
FILE – The speaker’s dais is seen in the House of Representatives of the Capitol in Washington. (J. Scott Applewhite, File/AP)
Johnson on Tuesday evening became the House Republicans’ Speaker-designate, after a multi-ballot vote that came immediately after House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s candidacy fizzled slightly more than four hours after he won the same position. But something interesting happened for Johnson after he won the internal election following several rounds of voting: On a roll call vote in conference behind closed doors, not a single member voted against him–and only a handful voted present. One of those present votes in conference, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), now says he will back Johnson on the floor on Wednesday. But there were close to 20 absences, many of whom are expected to back Johnson on the floor, so it is as of yet uncertain.
For Johnson to win the Speakership, assuming all members of both parties are present and vote for a person, he would need 217 votes since there are two vacancies in the House right now. There are 221 voting Republicans, which means Johnson could only afford to lose four members. Since there are 212 voting Democrats, if Republicans have any present votes Johnson would need to put up at least 213 votes and depending on the vote math not have anyone voting against him, or very few.
It’s been a wild ride for House Republicans since former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted from his position more than three weeks ago now. In the immediate aftermath of McCarthy’s ouster, House Republicans first elevated Johnson’s fellow Louisianan the House Majority Leader Steve Scalise as the Speaker-designate. Scalise’s candidacy failed, and he never even went to the floor. After Scalise, Republicans turned to House Judiciary Committee chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), who tried three separate floor votes during the week in which he was Speaker-designate, but a total of 25 intransigents blocked him from getting the gavel. After that, the House GOP turned to Emmer, who like Scalise never went to the floor but unlike Scalise and Jordan held an in-conference roll call vote away from the prying public eyes. The opposition to Emmer was deeper than it was for Jordan, with 26 stalwarts against him–a number that exploded in growth after former President Donald Trump, the 2024 GOP frontrunner for president, stabbed him with a dagger of a post on Truth Social knifing any shot Emmer had of getting the job. The damage was done and Emmer withdrew his candidacy moments later.
House Majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
After that, it seemed hopeless for House Republicans and some were even floating some kind of a McCarthy comeback with Jordan as “assistant Speaker.” But as those discussions were turning from whispers into a possibility, Johnson quietly amassed mass support from all corners of the House GOP conference and posted an impressive roll call vote that saw zero GOP defectors despite a handful of present votes and a dozen or so absences. Whether Johnson can lock down the full support to win the gavel on Wednesday is anyone’s guess, but the latest efforts on the House floor will commence shortly after noon. It’s possible too it could go more than one ballot if any allies of Jordan, Scalise, McCarthy, or Emmer aim to protest on a first ballot.
If Johnson does take the gavel, he would face a number of immediate and pressing crises as Speaker of the House. First and foremost, government funding runs dry again three weeks from Friday on November 17–and Johnson would have a ticking clock from the second he takes over. Secondly, Democrat President Joe Biden is pushing an emergency aid package for Ukraine and Israel–tying the two together–and how a Speaker Johnson would handle that would be a major first test. Thirdly, before his ouster, McCarthy formally launched an impeachment inquiry into Biden’s corruption–and how a Speaker Johnson handles that would be a major test as well. Fourthly, and more broadly, House Republicans are angry, tired, weary, and worn-down from this internal strife. Johnson, who is not known as a prolific fundraiser, would need to figure out a way to marshal resources to begin to build a political operation to protect and possibly expand the House GOP’s slim majority as Republicans face a host of challenges nationwide from redistricting court challenges to strong Democrat candidates to recruiting issues for the GOP. How Johnson moves to unite this band of deeply divided Republicans will be a story worth tracking closely.
What’s more, since Scalise is also from Louisiana, there may be a push to get a new majority leader from a different state. Johnson’s handling of that after all this infighting will be critical. Emmer may face a push to be removed as well, given how poorly his speakership candidacy fared. Louisiana’s influence and stature among Republicans is quickly on the rise as the bayou has now emerged as the next possible Speaker of the House as well as the House Majority Leader are from there, a development that follows the shock election victory of Governor-Elect Jeff Landry, who surprised everyone by flipping the governor’s mansion in Baton Rouge from Democrat to Republican control without a runoff earlier this month.
Jeff Landry (Jeff Landry/Facebook)
But first Johnson has to win the gavel. The House comes in at noon eastern on Wednesday to consider his speakership bid. Follow along here for live updates as Breitbart News will be tracking the election closely.
