The Iowa caucus is less than a week away, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is down by double digits against former President Donald Trump, who is clearly the runaway frontrunner not only nationally but also in the state officially kicking off primary season.
The Tuesday average from RealClearPolling showed the entire field trailing Trump in the Hawkeye State by an average of 36 percent. Trump is boasting majority support with an average of 52.3 percent support, followed by 16.3 percent who support former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. DeSantis falls to third place with an average of 16 percentage points.
Further, the latest Morning Consult poll found Trump leading by 43 points and DeSantis, again, falling to third place.
Despite his 99-county tour and endorsement from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), DeSantis has a stunning lack of momentum in Iowa. Yet, he has predicted time and time again that he will emerge as the victor. Here are some examples.
1. In August 2023, roughly five months out from the Iowa caucuses, DeSantis predicted he would win a “majority” of delegates in the Hawkeye State.
“Win a majority of the delegates is what we’re going to do. I think we’re ahead of where we thought we would be thus far in terms of what we’ve been able to accomplish in Iowa,” DeSantis told reporters at the time, adding, “I’m competing to win every delegate.”
“I mean, I’m not gonna cede anything,” he continued.
That same month, Trump outshined his rival at the Iowa state fair, flying overhead and drawing attention away from DeSantis:
Trump already overshadowing DeSantis at the Iowa state fair, as the crowd turns away from DeSantis event to watch Trump’s plane encircle overhead pic.twitter.com/nsMo3WpKZO
— Joyce Koh (@JoyceKohTV) August 12, 2023
One reporter shared video of members of the crowd shouting, “We love Trump” and “We want Trump!”:
Gov. Ron DeSantis walks through a crowd chanting “We love Trump” and “We want Trump” pic.twitter.com/IBjOWcEH1i
— Lalee Ibssa (@LaleeIbssa) August 12, 2023
2. In October, DeSantis made the bold claim during a speech to the Virgin Islands GOP Committee.
“They’re not going to vote for people like Pence and Haley. I respect them, they’re just not,” DeSantis said, referencing voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. “They will vote for me, because I have a record of being a very strong leader.”
“We’re going to win Iowa,” DeSantis stated, according to the Miami Herald. “We’re way ahead of any other candidate who’s won the caucuses in the past.”
3. In early December, DeSantis confidently stated that he would emerge as the victor in Iowa.
“Well, we’re going to win the caucus,” he told NBC’s Kristen Welker during an appearance on Meet the Press. “We’re doing everything that we need to do it. We’ll continue to build support.”
“We’re going to win Iowa. I think it’s going to help propel us to the nomination,” he predicted.
4. Weeks later, DeSantis told Fox News Digital he would win Iowa.
“We’re gonna win here in Iowa. We have the organization in place. That doesn’t guarantee you anything and most people that have won recently haven’t gone on to win and vice versa. It’s happened the other way,” he said.
“So this is a long slog, but I think this is the first time voters will be able to render a preference. I think it’ll be very clarifying in terms of who is who is a real deal and who’s not. So we look forward to that,” he added.
Watch video here:
5. According to ABC7, DeSantis was still predicting a victory this week, despite seemingly backtracking at times:
Of all the candidates on the ground in Iowa this week, only DeSantis is predicting an outright victory over Trump. He moved his entire campaign leadership to the state in recent months and visited each of Iowa’s 99 counties.
DeSantis reportedly told supporters in Dubuque, “You’re going to see an earthquake on January 15.”
It does not end there, either. In an interview with NBC News and the Des Moines Register, DeSantis took his predictions a step further, telling reporters that he will win other states, too.
During the interview, DeSantis denied that he put all his eggs in one basket — namely, Iowa. When pressed to name another state he would win other than Iowa, he failed to definitively say, instead boasting of the various campaign operations he has in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Super Tuesday states.
“We’re going to be able to win a lot of states. We have a great organization in New Hampshire. We have a great organization in South Carolina. We have a lot of great organizations throughout Super Tuesday. So you’re going to see this as very dynamic. You’re going to see it’s a long process, and we’re going to be able to win, so stay tuned. But to say that we put all the eggs, it’s not true,” DeSantis said.
“We have great organization and field programs in the early states, and we’re going to compete in all of them,” he added.
Speaking to Breitbart News Saturday, Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird predicted a “historic” win for Trump in the Iowa caucuses.
“I am predicting a historic win in the caucuses by President Trump,” Bird predicted. “The biggest win we’ve ever had for a Republican in the Iowa caucuses was way back in 1988, 12 points.”
“That’s a big win. I think anything over ten points is really considered a blowout. And right now, President Trump is pulling at maybe 30 points ahead. That’s just incredible. It’s unprecedented. It’s historic,” Bird added.
