Arizona Poll: Donald Trump Leads Joe Biden, Holds 47-Point Advantage over Primary Field

Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in a hypothetical presidential election match-up in Arizona and enjoys a commanding advantage over the rest of the Republican primary field, according to an Emerson College Poll. 

The poll, published on Tuesday, shows Trump with 45 percent of the response in a head-to-head match-up, placing him two points ahead of Biden at 43 percent. Another nine percent of voters would back someone else in that scenario. 

When Green Party presidential candidate Cornel West is factored into the fray as a third candidate, he garners four percent of the vote while Trump’s lead over Biden shrinks. Trump and Biden register at 42 percent and 41 percent, respectively, in that scenario.

“In national and other statewide polling in recent months, West’s candidacy has taken votes away from Biden in the general election, however in Arizona, it appears to tighten the race, rather than just reduce Biden’s support,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a release. 

While West’s candidacy hurts Trump in Arizona in this poll, a separate Michigan poll last week showed that West would draw votes away from Biden, enabling Trump to take the lead there.

Meanwhile, Trump is dominating the Republican primary field in Arizona. Of the respondents who plan to vote in the GOP primary, 58 percent back Trump, making him the clear-cut favorite. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) holds a slim lead for second place and is in jeopardy of falling to single digits with just 11 percent of support. 

Former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) finds himself within striking distance of second place with six percent, while four percent back entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) tie at three percent.

Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) and former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) each have one percent of backers in the Grand Canyon State, while no other candidate secures a percentage point.

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On the Democrat side of things, Biden leads his challengers in Arizona with 65 percent of the response. Ten percent of the Democrat voters back Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while two percent support Marianne Williamson. Another 21 percent are undecided. 

Emerson College Polling sampled 1,337 registered voters in Arizona between August 2-4. The credibility interval is ± 2.6 percentage points.