In the latest New York Times/Siena Poll Trump has his biggest lead over Biden ever. And Biden’s disapproval rating is a whopping 59 percent. I list 18 key points from the poll.
The Big Change
Nate Cohn, New York Times chief political analyst notes The Big Change Between the 2020 and 2024 Races: Biden Is Unpopular. That’s a free link for interested readers.
President Biden is not winning, at least not now. Polls show him trailing in states worth well over 270 electoral votes, and this morning he lags Donald J. Trump in our newest New York Times/Siena College national poll by five percentage points among registered voters, 48 percent to 43 percent.
That’s the largest lead Mr. Trump has ever had in a Times/Siena national poll. In fact, it’s the largest lead Mr. Trump has held in a Times/Siena or Times/CBS poll since first running for president in 2015.
Why is President Biden losing? There are many possible reasons, including his age, the war in Gaza, the border and lingering concerns over inflation. But ultimately, they add up to something very simple: Mr. Biden is very unpopular. He’s so unpopular that he’s now even less popular than Mr. Trump, who remains every bit as unpopular as he was four years ago.
Many voters will apparently agonize between two candidates they dislike. It’s exactly what Democrats sought to avoid when they nominated Mr. Biden in 2020. It’s what Democrats largely avoided in the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, when they mostly nominated acceptable candidates or ran incumbents against right-wing opponents. And it’s exactly what led to the election of Mr. Trump in 2016.
Double Haters
Overall, 19 percent of registered voters in the Times/Siena survey have an unfavorable view of both candidates — a group sometimes referred to as “double haters.” These voters say they backed Mr. Biden by a three-to-one margin among those who voted in 2020, but now he holds the support of less than half. Every vote counts, but these voters will undoubtedly be pivotal in deciding the November election.
The double haters might ultimately return to Mr. Biden’s side. There are still eight months left until November, and it’s not as if these voters like Mr. Trump. If they do come back to Mr. Biden, perhaps their return will have seemed inevitable in retrospect.
Poll Results
In a second post, the New York Times goes over the Poll Results.
With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters.
Eighteen Key Points
Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction.
More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them.
A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition.
The share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47 percent, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.
About as many Democratic primary voters said Mr. Biden should not be the nominee in 2024 as said he should be — with opposition strongest among voters younger than 45 years old.
Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden.
Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump.
Among the likely electorate, Mr. Trump currently leads by four percentage points.
The historical edge Democrats have held with working-class voters of color who did not attend college continues to erode. Mr. Biden won 72 percent of those voters in 2020, according to exit polling, providing him with a nearly 50-point edge over Mr. Trump. Today, the Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden only narrowly leading among nonwhite voters who did not graduate from college: 47 percent to 41 percent.
Only 23 percent of Democratic primary voters said they were enthusiastic about Mr. Biden — half the share of Republicans who said they were about Mr. Trump. Significantly more Democrats said they were either dissatisfied or angry at Mr. Biden being the leader of the party (32 percent) than Republicans who said the same about Mr. Trump (18 percent).
Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are unpopular. Mr. Trump had a weak 44 percent favorable rating; Mr. Biden fared even worse, at 38 percent. Among the 19 percent of voters who said they disapproved of both likely nominees — an unusually large cohort in 2024 that pollsters and political strategists sometimes call “double haters” — Mr. Biden actually led Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 33 percent. The candidate who had won such “double haters” was victorious in the elections in both 2016 and 2020.
Unhappiness with the state of the country is plainly a drag on Mr. Biden’s prospects. Two-thirds of the country feels the nation is headed in the wrong direction — and Mr. Trump is winning 63 percent of those voters.
Only 12 percent of independent voters said Mr. Biden’s policies had personally helped them, compared to 43 percent who said his policies had hurt them.
Overall, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were dead even among prized independent voters, drawing 42 percent each.
The gender gap is no longer benefiting Democrats. Women, who strongly favored Mr. Biden four years ago, are now equally split, while men gave Mr. Trump a nine-point edge.
The poll showed Mr. Trump edging out Mr. Biden among Latinos, and Mr. Biden’s share of the Black vote is shrinking, too.
The poll showed that 53 percent of voters currently believe Mr. Trump has committed serious federal crimes, down from 58 percent in December. But viewed another way, Mr. Trump’s current lead over Mr. Biden is built with a significant number of voters who believe he is a criminal.
Nikki Haley, Mr. Trump’s Republican rival, who has made the case that he will lose in November, leads Mr. Biden by double the margin of the former president: a hypothetical 45 percent to 35 percent.
Quite a Set of Statistics
Wow, that’s quite the set of statistics. I emphasized the poll results I believe are most important.
In numerical order, not order of importance the key points are #s 2, 7, 9, 13, 15, 17, and 18.
The only negatives in the poll are #14 and #18.
Regarding point 14, Trump is still struggling with independents.
Regarding point 18, Haley would do better than Trump against Biden. That is believable given 19 percent of voters hate both Trump and Biden and would vote for someone else.
Who Would No Labels Help?
If the No Labels party fielded a candidate, it was draw in a lot of the independents, a lot of Haley supporters, and a lot of the people who dislike both Trump and Biden.
Given that support for Trump appears firmer, one should conclude that No Labels would hurt Biden more than Trump.
Trump Would Rather Win Adoration From the Base Than Win the Election
As expected I took a lot of flack from my post Trump Would Rather Win Adoration From the Base Than Win the Election
A couple of people labeled me a RINO (Republican in Name Only), which is amusing because I am not a Republican at all.
I am a Libertarian who is a believer in small government, free trade, and mind-your-own-business on foreign affairs and the bedroom.
Several people accused me of TDS despite the fact that I said “I would much rather have Trump win than Biden. I think Biden would economically destroy the nation.”
I also said “a big majority of the nation knows Biden is too senile to run again,” which of course got a lot catcalls from Biden lovers.
A few people viewed me as “Leftist”.
Once again this shows you cannot say anything bad about either Trump of Biden without being accused of being extreme the other.
In retrospect, this is now the 5th time I have been accused of being extreme left and right in the same day.
Can Anything Go Wrong for Trump?
The short answer: Yes, it’s possible. But that is a “can happen” not what I expect to happen.
The long answer: It’s only March. The election in 8 months away. Trump could easily get convicted. Biden might drop out due to health reasons. If that happened, could Trump easily beat Biden’s replacement?
This is why I keep repeating Trump cannot afford to ignore independents and Haley backers.
Calling Haley a “birdbrain” does not help. Nor does calling California Governor Gavin Newsom the name “New Scum.”
One of my readers, Jon, commented “That’s exactly why I will never vote for Donald Trump. He appeals to people’s basest nature instead of pushing them act on their best nature. I don’t belong in the same political party as those who cheer at national leaders being called bird brain and new scum“
There are many thousands of people like Jon.
Enough to tip the election?
I don’t know. Nor does anyone else. Right now, the answer seems to be no. That’s how unpopular Biden is.
But the election is not right now. The election is in November.
