Former President Donald Trump upended President Joe Biden’s recent national polling gains by dominating Biden in swing states, a Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll found Wednesday.
Several national polls showed Biden cutting into Trump’s national polling lead after Trump’s criminal trial kicked off last week. “I think there’s this idea that the legal troubles that Trump is facing have somehow helped him, but that’s not something that I’ve necessarily seen in the recent data,” CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Tuesday.
The Bloomberg swing state tracking poll appears to burst CNN’s bubble. It found Trump maintains an average six-point lead over Biden:
- Trump: 49 percent
- Biden: 43 percent
In addition, Trump vanquished Biden’s positive swing state polling. Trump leads in six of the seven swing states, the poll found:
- Georgia: Trump: 49 percent (+6). Biden: 43 percent
- Wisconsin: Trump: 48 percent (+4) Biden: 44 percent
- North Carolina: Trump: 51 percent (+10) Biden: 41 percent
- Pennsylvania: Trump: 47 percent (+1) Biden: 46 percent
- Arizona: Trump: 49 percent (+7) Biden: 42 percent
- Nevada: Trump: 51 percent (+8) Biden: 43 percent
- Biden edges out Trump in only one swing state, Michigan: (+2)
Seven states, (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina) will decide the president, longtime Democrat adviser Doug Sosnik wrote in the New York Times. If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral votes become narrow, he said.
Voters blame Biden for the sluggish economy on Main Street, Bloomberg analysis of the Consult polling concluded. Bloomberg also underscored that downballot Democrats are hurt by Biden’s poor economy:
The poll sampled 4,969 registered voters in seven swing states from April 8-15, 2024, with a ± one percent margin of error.The reversion comes as poll respondents offered a bleak near-term view of the economy, the issue that has consistently registered as their top concern at the ballot box. A majority of swing-state voters see worsening economic conditions in the coming months, with fewer than one in five saying they expect inflation and borrowing costs to be lower by the end of the year. Despite a resilient job market, only 23% of respondents said the employment rate would improve over the same time period.
More than three quarters of poll respondents said the president is responsible for the current performance of the US economy, and nearly half said he was “very responsible.”
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Biden’s six-point deficit across the swing states is even wider than that of Democratic congressional candidates, who trail Republicans by two points. That hints that more voters have a sour view of Biden than of his party overall. Those ticket-splitters — voters who say they’ll vote for Trump for president but a Democrat for Congress — are far more pessimistic about the economy than those who split their votes the other way, Biden for president and a Republican for Congress.
