The Green New Pipe Dream
President Joe Biden has tried to sell America on the idea that economic policies can support growth while preventing climate change. The president has frequently described his promise to create jobs while fighting climate change as “Bidenomics in action.”
As it turns out, some of the biggest skeptics are climate researchers.
A survey of climate researchers published in Nature Sustainability, a peer-reviewed scientific journal published by the same outfit that puts out the prestigious Nature journal, reveals extreme skepticism about the notion of “green growth.” For those not up on the latest climate politics, green growth is the idea that the economy can be encouraged to continue to grow even as governments adopt more climate friendly policies aimed at, for example, reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Not so fast, say the climate experts.
“Despite strong promotion of green growth by policymakers and international institutions, there is mounting criticism concerning the compatibility of continued economic growth with sustainability goals,” the article in Nature Sustainability proclaims. “[A] growing body of research within the scientific community is challenging the idea that green growth is fundamentally possible or even desirable.”
Green Growth, Degrowth, and Agrowth
A large share of the climate experts reject green growth in favor of “post-growth” policies or even “degrowth,” which the article describes as “Critiquing capitalism and advocating for a deliberate and equitable reduction in material consumption and economic activity in high-income countries to achieve more sustainable and socially just societies.”
That’s a pretty extreme stance. The moderate stance, however, is also pretty far out there. It is termed “agrowth,” and instead of seeking outright economic contraction—known to the rest of us as recession—it would prefer policymakers just be neutral when it comes to things like economic growth, jobs, and wages and instead focus on the environment above all else. The authors of the Nature Sustainability article describe this as the middle-ground position between degrowth and green growth.
A climate change activist protests during Paris Fashion Week on October 5, 2021, in Paris, France. (CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP via Getty Images)
The survey shows that on average around the the world, just 27 percent of climate researchers support green growth. The agrowth position commands the support of 44.8 percent of the researchers. The degrowth position finds adherents among 28.1 percent of the researchers.
Perhaps not surprisingly, there’s a divide among researchers between rich and poorer countries. In the European Union, just 13.8 percent of climate researchers are pro-green growth. Fifty percent are agrowthers and 36.2 percent are degrowthistas. In North America, 26.2 percent of researchers are green growth believers. The agrowth position garners support among 45.6 percent, and the degrowth position scores 28.2 percent growth.
Over in the developing economies, there is a lot more support for growth.
“In contrast, more than half of the researchers from non-OECD countries expressed views supporting a green growth position. Researchers from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—collectively known as the BRICS—were slightly more in favour of green growth and against degrowth than those from other non-OECD countries. This may be influenced by these countries’ self-identified status as emerging economic powerhouses,” the paper explains.
Green Recession Forever
There’s also a divide among the climate researchers themselves, depending on their particular fields. Social scientists who aren’t economists were most skeptical of green growth, with 84.7 percent of environmental social scientists and 85.4 percent of social scientists (who the journal says are mostly political scientists) taking the agrowth or degrowth positions. Natural scientists were more favorable to growth, with only 62.4 percent opposing green growth in favor of degrowth or a growth. Economists were close to the viewers of the natural scientists.
President Joe Biden speaks on how “Bidenomics” is helping clean energy and manufacturing, at Arcosa Wind Towers in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on August 9, 2023. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)
Despite the divisions, however, it is clear that a majority of climate researchers oppose green growth policies in favor of abandoning growth or actually seeking economic contraction.
The Biden administration likes to claim it is listening to the “science” when it touts environmental measures. In fact, climate researchers are saying that the Biden administration’s pursuit of climate-friendly growth policies is a pipe dream. No doubt, many of those in the Biden administration know this—and agree.
They just do not want the American people to know the real cost of their climate agenda is an economy permanently in contraction or without growth.
