Democrats Refused to Believe Polls Showing People Disliked Biden’s Economy
One of the reasons Democrats were caught off guard by the strength of support for Donald Trump across America is that they underestimated the importance of inflation and economic conditions to voters.
The economy was the leading concern among U.S. registered voters heading into the presidential race, according to Gallup’s polling. In a field of 22 topics, the economy was the sole issue on which a majority—52 percent—of voters indicated that candidates’ stances were “extremely important” in shaping their choice. Voters favored former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris by nine points as the candidate more capable of managing the nation’s economic challenges.
Since inflation began climbing in 2021, public confidence in the economy has leaned increasingly pessimistic, as shown in Gallup’s monthly gauge of Americans’ perceptions of the nation’s economic health and future prospects. Gallup’s final economic confidence index before the election registered at -26, a level more aligned with the economic sentiment observed in election years when the incumbent president’s party ultimately lost, such as 1992, 2008, and 2016, rather than in years when the incumbent’s prevailed, like 1996, 2004, and 2012.
Democrats, however, have consistently downplayed the importance of the issue. Many pundits insisted that surveys showing low levels of consumer confidence were simply reflecting partisanship. They focused on cherry-picked economic data to argue that the economy was doing just great and claimed that voters would eventually come around to this point of view and reward Harris with their votes.
Pre-Election Polls Showed Democrats Weren’t Focused on Inflation
In the final poll by YouGov for the Economist before the election, 73 percent of Democrats said the Harris campaign was focused on inflation “about the right amount” (another six percent said she was talking about inflation too much). Only 15 percent of Democrats said she was not focused on inflation enough. Contrast that with the views of independents and Republicans. Thirty-one percent of independents said Harris was paying enough attention, while 49 percent said she wasn’t focused on it enough. Just one percent said she was too focused on inflation.
Among Republicans, 85 percent said Harris had not focused on inflation enough, and just nine percent said she had focused on it enough.
Weirdly enough, the poll shows that a majority of Democrats thought Trump should have focused on inflation even more. Fifty-five percent said he had not focused on inflation enough, compared with 33 percent of independents, and 15 percent of Republicans. Just 17 percent of Democrats said Trump gave inflation the right amount of attention, close to the 15 percent who said he was talking about it too much. A 42 percent plurality of independents said Trump’s focus on inflation was about right—as did 78 percent of Republicans.
We can probably just ignore the finding that Democrats thought Trump should be more focused on inflation. The most likely cause of this response is just the unwillingness of Democrats to say something positive about the Trump campaign making them unable to say his focus was about right.
Why were Democrats so blasé about inflation? One reason appears to be that they just thought it was not all that important in their own lives. Forty-one percent said the personal impact of inflation was “a lot,” compared with 56 percent of independents and 69 percent of Republicans.
When asked where they expected inflation to be six months from now, only 19 percent of Democrats expected inflation to go higher, and 33 percent expected a lower rate of inflation. Among independents, the numbers were reversed: 30 percent expected higher inflation and 17 percent expected lower. Republicans were less likely than independents to fear higher inflation, with 25 percent thinking inflation would go up and 19 percent expecting it would go down.
Inflation Denial Still Runs Strong
Even now, after the election, Democrats appear to underestimate the importance of inflation. Asked which of fourteen different issues they think was the most important to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, just 27 percent of Democrats said “inflation and the state of the economy.” That was selected by 41 percent of independents and 52 percent of Republicans.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks as President Joe Biden listens at an event in the White House Rose Garden on September 22, 2023. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
One additional note: Democrats also appear to have fallen out of step with the electorate on immigration. While immigration was ranked by independents and Republicans as the second most important election issue, Democrats ranked “racism and/or sexism,” the influence of billionaires, and misinformation higher.
Exit polls indicate that the economy was the foremost concern among voters. Approximately 39 percent identified it as the most important issue influencing their vote, according to the Fox News Voter Analysis polls. Immigration followed, with 20 percent of voters citing it as their primary concern, and abortion was picked by 11 percent of voters.
Instead of facing up to the problem of high inflation and the weight attached to it by the American public, Democrats tried to distract and deny right through the election. This may well have cost them any chance of persuading Americans to vote a Democrat into the White House. And they still are in denial about it.
