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Canadian Election: Poilievre Odds Explode Higher As Conservative Turnout 'Larger Than Expected'

With Canada's Atlantic polls now having closed in what will be a deeply consequential election, odds for conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre have begun spiking after conservative turnout was reportedly "larger than expected," according to betting market Kalshi. Official results won't start rolling in until around 7:30 Eastern.

canadian election poilievre odds explode higher as conservative turnout larger than expected

Earlier, Polymarket odds were as high as 48% for Poilievre - dropping to a 30% chance as of this writing - but nevertheless in sharp contrast to the 20% odds he's been hovering around all week.

canadian election poilievre odds explode higher as conservative turnout larger than expected

Only to reverse lower (as seen on this 6h chart)...

canadian election poilievre odds explode higher as conservative turnout larger than expected

You can track the odds in realtime below:

We're guessing Carney takes it, but there was still money to be made for those who partake...

Stay tuned for updates...

via April 28th 2025