Republicans will keep the majority in the House and retake the majority in the Senate, according to Decision Desk HQ/the Hill’s updated analysis of its 2024 election forecast.
The forecast is terrible news for Democrats, who find themselves in a tough spot after they coronated Vice President Kamala Harris as their nominee, instead of President Joe Biden.
Candidates atop party tickets play a significant role in down-ballot races. Democrats, such as Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), reportedly became worried that Democrats would lose the House and the Senate if Biden remained atop the ticket.
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The sudden switcheroo does not appear to be reversing the Democrats’ chances of winning both chambers.Decision Desk HQ predicts Republicans have a 56 percent chance of keeping control of the House chamber, which is charged with initiating revenue bills, impeaching judges and presidents, and electing a president absent an outright Electoral College victory.
In the Senate, Republicans have a 67 percent chance of retaking control, according to the forecast. The Senate is important because it has the exclusive power to confirm presidential appointments, approve or reject treaties, and try cases of impeachment.
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One reason Republicans have a greater chance of flipping the Senate than keeping the House is due to the 2024 electoral map. Democrats have more swing-state seats up for reelection than Republicans. More vulnerable Democrat seats mean the party must spend more resources defending seats rather than attacking seats held by Republican senators up for reelection.
A second reason Republicans have a lower chance of keeping the House is due to a reduced amount of total battleground districts up for grabs, placing greater weight on fewer races. Population shifts among partisans and subsequent redistricting within those states spawned the overall reduced number of swing districts, political experts believe.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
