An intelligence analysis of voter sentiment conducted by former President Donald Trump’s former campaign manager–among others–shows businessman and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy surging in the Montana GOP Senate primary and Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), a possible candidate, in complete free fall.
The analysis also shows West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice dominating the GOP primary in the Senate race in that state.
“An analysis of voter sentiment by Media Intelligence Group found that both Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy and Governor Jim Justice are well-positioned to win their respective primaries,” the memo from Media Intelligence Group’s Tyler Q. Houlton and Campaign Nucleus’s Brad Parscale reads. “Sheehy has seen dramatic growth in his support since he began advertising on Montana broadcast television. Meanwhile, Justice’s lead has proven resilient in the West Virginia Senate race.”
The memo, addressed to “interested parties,” was obtained exclusively by Breitbart News ahead of its public release. Parscale, one of its authors, was at one time during the 2020 cycle Trump’s campaign manager.
Specifically about Montana, the memo explains that since entering the race earlier this summer Sheehy has completely flipped the state of the race on its head. Rosendale has yet to enter the race, though many reports expect he might do so—but GOP leaders are hopeful that Sheehy will defeat him because many are concerned Rosendale would have trouble winning a general election given that he lost this exact Senate seat five years ago to incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT).
Rosendale has run into other major problems too, including when he refused to take Trump’s phone call in January during the Speakership election. A now-infamous image of Rosendale giving “the Heisman” to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) shows him snubbing Trump. Rosendale has since refused to endorse Trump, while Sheehy has endorsed the former president. Trump, in turn, has reportedly told Rosendale he will not be supporting him for Senate if he runs.
“Since launching his campaign, Tim Sheehy has seen his support grow from the mid-thirties to 64%,” the memo reads, and continues:
Since mid-July, Matt Rosendale his seen his support fall from the mid-sixties to 36%. Sheehy’s growth has been propelled by voters reacting positively to his current advertising campaign and general growth in name-ID. Matt Rosendale’s image has taken a hit due to a perception that he is anti-veteran and his continued refusal to endorse President Trump’s reelection bid.
In West Virginia, meanwhile, the memo explains that Justice—the GOP’s favored candidate over Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV)—is leading significantly.
“To put it bluntly, Jim Justice is dominating in the West Virginia Senate Primary. Our support index found Justice has a nearly insurmountable lead of 92%-8%,” the memo reads, continuing:
Justice received high marks for his continued support of President Trump and a perception among voters that he is doing a good job as governor. Alex Mooney is struggling to break through due to lack of name ID along with criticism from West Virginians that he is an ineffective legislator who has not strongly defended President Trump amid multiple indictments.
The memo is scant on details about its exact methodology; the authors say their analyses were more accurate than public polling in 2022. “The Media Intelligence Group utilizes Campaign Nucleus’ proprietary and AI-driven technology to analyze candidate support by monitoring social media conversations in the states where these elections will occur,” the memo’s methodology section reads. “The artificial intelligence predicted election results in the 2022 cycle more accurately than public polling by using big data analysis.”
While public polling in Montana has been virtually non-existent in the possible race between Sheehy and Rosendale–depending on whether the latter ends up running–public polling in West Virginia does suggest that the memo is correct in its general sentiment about the state of that race. Polls have shown Justice leading the primary by close to 40 percent. That would suggest, assuming this analysis model is correct, that should Rosendale decide to run for the Senate nomination he would face a very uphill battle as the momentum has shifted this summer to favor Sheehy significantly.
If Republicans take these two U.S. Senate seats–Montana and West Virginia–and do not lose any off the back end, the GOP would retake the U.S. Senate majority next year.
