An internal poll shows Nevada Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown is dominating the GOP primary field by more than 50 points and would tack on another 16 points to his support should former President Donald Trump endorse him.
The Tarrance Group polling memo, exclusively obtained by Breitbart News, finds Brown with 58 percent support. The now-retired Army captain sits a sizeable 52 points above his nearest opponent, former Nevada State Rep. Jim Marchant (R), at just 6 percent.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, who was apparently a registered Democrat in California until at least last Summer, ties with retired Air Force Lt. Col. Tony Grady at three percent, while seven percent of respondents would vote for another candidate or “none of the above,” and over one in five are undecided.
The Tarrance Group Nevada Senate Polling Memo April by Breitbart News on Scribd
Brown’s strength jumps even higher — to 74 percent when voters were asked who they would back if Brown got an endorsement from Trump, whose endorsements in GOP primaries carry enormous influence.
“Much of this movement would come from those who are currently undecided and are waiting to see if President Trump decides to endorse a candidate in this race,” the memo notes.
Gunter, who entered the race this month, was a registered California Democrat as of at least August 9, 2023, according to Los Angeles County Registrar records obtained and reviewed by Breitbart News.
One source close to the Trump campaign told Breitbart News that Gunter “is a California liberal lying about being MAGA.”
“He donated to Never Trump candidates, didn’t vote for President Trump in 2020, and would be an unmitigated disaster in the general election. Everyone knows Gunter is a fraud and loser,” the source added.
In a statement to Breitbart News, a Republican strategist who works on Senate races likened Gunter’s support to that of former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR), one of the worst-performing Republican presidential candidates this cycle.
“Jeff Gunter is polling at Asa Hutchinson levels because voters know he is a Democrat who lived in California until very recently,” the strategist said.
Brown is leaps and bounds above his opponents in both name recognition and favorability rating. Brown’s favorability registers at 77 percent, while just 8 percent find him unfavorable, and only 9 percent are unfamiliar with him.
Marchant fares second best in this department with a rating 30 points above water at 41-11. But he does not have the recognition Brown has, as nearly three in ten voters have never heard of him. Gunter and Grady are seriously behind on the favorability front, with June 11’s Republcian primary exactly two months away as of this writing; 69 percent of respondents have never heard of Grady, and 67 percent do not know of Gunter.
Moreover, Marchant has far more of Brown’s support on a second-choice ballot than Gunter, with 30 percent of Brown voters selecting the former state representative as their second choice compared to just 4 percent switching to Gunter.
The poll sampled 500 likely Republican primary voters between April 7 and 10. The margin of error (MOE) is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
An Emerson College/KLAS-TV/The Hill poll from last month showed that Brown is highly competitive with Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) in a hypothetical general election matchup. She sits two points ahead of Brown at 41 percent to 39 percent. Conversely, Marchant trailed by double-digits, and Gunter was nine points back in their hypothetical pairings with Rosen.
The poll sampled 1,000 registered voters from March 12-15. The MOE was ± three percent.
