Farage’s Reform Could Take Parliament Seat From Governing Labour, Poll Says

Polling suggests that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party could win a by-election (special election) triggered by a Labour Member of Parliament’s resignation after he punched a constituent in the face.

Voters in Runcorn and Helsby in the county of Cheshire will shortly select a new Member of Parliament. Although the date for the ballot has yet to be set, early indications suggest Farage’s insurgents could carry the day despite a massive majority gained by the incumbent Labour Party at the last election.

Polling by Lord Ashcroft — a longstanding Tory and respected as far as UK pollsters go — looked at voters in the constituency and weighed responses according to how likely residents said they were actually to take time to vote on polling day. With that in mind, the polling put Farage’s Reform at 40 per cent, Labour at 35 per cent, and the Conservatives, who were until recently the main party on the right in British politics, at a paltry ten per cent.

Ashcroft said when the polling was even stricter, only counting those who said they were absolutely certain to vote in the by-election, Reform’s lead rose to 9 points with 42 per cent. This, it was explained, is because Reform party voters are simply more dedicated, with just 55 per cent of people who said they support Labour in the constituency saying they would definitely vote.

At the 2024 General Election, Labour’s Mike Amesbury received 52.9 per cent of the vote, winning by 14,700 votes. This would be an unassailably strong majority in normal times, yet that lead has since crumbled and the seat practically looks like it is Farage’s to lose.

Labour’s poll ratings have taken a catastrophic nose-dive nationally in the mere 254 days since the last election, and Reform UK — recent party infighting aside — has climbed and climbed, polling consistently as the highest or second-highest-rated party in the United Kingdom. Even worse for Labour, this by-election is taking place because their former incumbent, Mike Amesbury, is leaving Parliament in disgrace after he punched one of his own constituents in the face and was subsequently found guilty of common assault.

As reported at the time, Amesbury punched the man in the street while on a night out, and shouted, “You won’t threaten the MP ever again, will you?”. Once the man was down, Amesbury punched him five more times and had to be restrained by passers-by. Naturally, this hasn’t endeared the Labour Party to local voters.

Labour has chosen local councillor and former teacher Karen Shore to represent the party in the by-election, and Reform hasn’t selected a candidate yet. This would matter less in a nationwide election when votes are picked, as much as anything, on the national party leader.

Winning a new seat would be a welcome boost to the Reform leadership after a fortnight of infighting led to the exit of one of its rising stars, Rupert Lowe. Reform leadership levelled serious allegations at the MP, which he denied, threatening to sue for defamation in return. Relations having soured, it seems certain Lowe’s exit from the Reform fold—fan favourite or not—is total and irreversible.