Various polls show former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the Sunshine State, although with a range of leads as Democrats desperately hope that they can turn solidly red Florida into a battleground state once again after largely writing it off.
A McLaughlin & Associates survey examining the race in Florida has been relatively consistent with others prior to President Biden’s departure from the 2024 presidential race, showing Trump with a solid lead. That survey was conducted August 6-8 among 800 voters and showed Trump leading by eight percent with a majority, 52 percent, supporting him in a race including third party candidates. Harris comes in second with 44 percent support. Trump’s lead reduces to a seven percent gap when third party candidates are not included.
However, other surveys examining the race in the state are generating a bit of attention, as establishment media outlets are largely salivating over the prospect of Harris closing the gap in the Sunshine State.
A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV survey, which polled 500 likely voters in the state, showed Trump leading Harris by five percentage points — 47 percent to Harris’s 42 percent.
USA Today put it this way: “The red wave that washed over Florida in recent years might not be as large as it once seemed, if a new presidential survey is any indication.”
Another survey from Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research showed an even smaller gap in Florida, with Trump garnering support from half of respondents, 50 percent, and Harris coming in three points behind with 47 percent support.
For greater perspective, Trump won Florida against Hillary Clinton in 2016 by 1.3 percent and against President Biden in 2020 by 3.3 percent.
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C-SPANThese polls come as Florida Republicans officially boast of a one million voter registration advantage over Democrats — a trend that largely began in November 2021, when Republicans first overtook Democrats in terms of voter registration.
Six years ago, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by almost 300,000 — and Florida had never had more registered Republicans than Democrats in its history.
— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) August 11, 2024
Now, Republicans outnumber Democrats by 1 million voters, which is a sea change that few thought… https://t.co/MZ7m96s5TW
It also comes months after a scramble from the Biden campaign over the summer after campaign chairwoman Jen O’Malley Dillon stated that she did not consider Florida a battleground state for Biden. At the time, battleground states director for Biden, Dan Kanninen, quickly corrected the record, maintaining that “Florida is absolutely in play.”
