Fox News Digital Power Rankings for the 2024 gubernatorial races
Fox News Power Rankings competitive gubernatorial races. (Fox News Power Rankings)
All eyes will be on the governor’s mansions in New Hampshire, North Carolina and Washington this November as voters in 11 states head to the polls.
Retiring incumbents give both parties chances to flip states
The biggest challenge for gubernatorial candidates this year is getting noticed.
With the presidency at stake and control of the House and Senate also up for grabs, it is easy to forget that a few governor’s races could also change hands.
But there are exciting statewide races.
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In New Hampshire, Democrats are chasing a win in a hotly contested race after Republican Gov. Chris Sununu decided not to run for re-election.
Republicans are looking to flip North Carolina. In the last two cycles, voters elected term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper to office twice while simultaneously choosing Trump for president. That battle will be won or lost on ticket-splitting.
Additionally, while Democrats have a clear advantage in Washington, the GOP hopes that bringing a sheriff to town will keep the race close.
Fox News Power Rankings on the 2024 gubernatorial races. (Fox News Power Rankings)
Republicans will also play defense in seven safe states, including North Dakota, Utah and Vermont, while Democrats have a safe race ahead in Delaware.
New Hampshire
The most competitive race on the map is New Hampshire, where Sununu announced he was not running for a fifth term this year.
The governor is one of a handful of Northeast Republicans who have proven popular with the electorate for sound fiscal management while staying out of the culture wars. Last time he was on the ballot in a presidential cycle, he won by nearly 32 points.
Fox News Power Rankings find New Hampshire is currently a toss-up. (Fox News Power Rankings)
New Hampshire is yet to hold its gubernatorial primary, but leading Republican candidates this time include former Sen. Kelly Ayotte and New Hampshire state senator Chuck Morse. Ayotte is running closely to Sununu’s playbook and received his endorsement last week.
The Democrats’ leading candidates include former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington; they have been running center-left campaigns focusing on families and healthcare, respectively.
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New Hampshire’s leftward drift at the presidential level is good news for Democrats, who have been hungry to compete in an open race.
However, Sununu’s strong brand may well live on in Ayotte, making this a toss-up.
North Carolina
North Carolina has a long history of ticket-splitting in its presidential and gubernatorial elections.
Republicans have won all but one presidential race in the Tar Heel State since 1980 (Obama eked out a win in 2008), but Democratic governors have won all but three of their elections over the same period.
Fox News Power Rankings rated North Carolina as "Lean D." (Fox News Power Rankings)
There are signs that the tradition could continue this year.
Democrats have fielded Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general since 2017. He is running a pro-business, pro-police campaign and has talked up the need to protect abortion rights on the trail. That is the right mix of issues for any Democratic candidate running in a close state.
Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson is the Republican candidate. He is closely aligned with former President Trump, who has endorsed him, and gave an impassioned speech at the RNC about rising costs and the American dream.
But Robinson brings a lot of baggage to this race. He has condemned homosexuality, promoted conspiracy theories and used antisemitic language, and previously endorsed a "no compromise" anti-abortion policy. He now agrees with a 12 week ban with limited exceptions.
Stein also nearly tripled Robinson’s fundraising in the second quarter this year.
A strong Trump performance will help Robinson get over the line, but Stein starts with an edge. This race is rated Lean D.
Washington
Voters in Washington will choose a new governor after Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee said he would not run for a fourth term last year.
Fox News Power Rankings rank Washington as "Likely D." (Fox News Power Rankings)
Inslee presides over a blue-leaning state. Washington last chose a Republican for governor in 1985, and Inslee has improved his margin in every election since his first victory.
However, the first time he ran – also the last time this state had an open race – voters delivered a close result. Inslee took 51.5% of the vote to the Republican candidate’s 48.5%, putting just three points between them.
Twelve years later, and it is Dave Reichert’s turn to try to make this a race. The Republican challenger and former congressman is banking that his long career as a county sheriff will be salient in a state still struggling with crime. He has also avoided aligning himself with Trump.
Democrat Bob Ferguson, a three-term attorney general, starts this race with a clear lead. Ferguson has raised over $9.3 million, more than double Reichert’s $4.5 million, thanks in part to leftover cash from previous campaigns. He is campaigning on abortion and worker rights.
This race is rated Likely D.
Fox News Power Rankings on 2024 gubernatorial races. (Fox News Power Rankings)
An all-new Issues Tracker will close out the week
Fox News Power Rankings are now available for more than 500 races this November. The complete set of forecasts is available on the Elections Hub.
On Sunday, Fox News Democracy 24 special coverage for the Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago.
Tune in to Fox News Sunday on your local station and Fox News Channel, and check back here to see the first Power Rankings Issues Tracker with Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket.
Rémy Numa is the lead political affairs specialist for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @remynuma.
