German Election Crossroads: Continuity Globalism or Shift to Right on Ballot as Voters Set to Select Next Government in Berlin

The leftist ‘traffic light’ coalition government in Berlin collapsed just hours after Donald Trump’s victory in November, sparking snap elections in Germany that will likely define the shape of European politics in the years to come.

Voters will head to the polls across Germany on Sunday to determine the next government of the top economy in the EU. At stake are not only relations between the United States and Europe but also the future of key globalist agendas such as the Green Deal and unfettered mass migration into the bloc, with soaring energy prices and a spate of Islamist terror attacks dominating the campaign conversation.

With that in mind, here is a look at the parties and players vying for power in the Bundestag:

Return of the Merkel Party Old Gaurd?

Former Chancellor Anglea Merkel left the political stage four years ago after dominating German politics for 16 years, leaving her party in ruins, ultimately doomed to failure, and relegated to the opposition benches in the last election in 2021. Now, her former party, the neo-liberal globalist Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and their regionist allies, the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), look to retake the helm in Berlin under the leadership of Friedrich Merz.

Merz, who comes from an affluent and politically prominent family from the North Rhine-Westphalia town of Brilon, has long cast himself as a rival to Merkel from the right. In a tacit admission of the failures of the open borders agenda of his predecessor, Merz has called for strict border controls to prevent illegal migrants from entering Germany and to ramp up deportations, including to countries like Afghanistan and Syria.

Last month, Merz sparked a political firestorm after controversially broke the so-called ‘cordon sanitaire’ by joining the populist-sovereigntist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in a vote calling for migration restrictions in the wake of the Christmas market attack in Magdeburg allegedly committed by a migrant from Saudi Arabia.

However, the leader of the supposedly centre-right CDU party has vowed not to form a coalition with the AfD after the elections, preferring instead a rerun of the “grand coalition” with the left-wing Social Democrats (SPD) which governed Germany for much of Merkel’s tenure, and which oversaw the Europe Migrant Crisis, which flooded the country with foreigners. Should Merz hold to his word and refuse to work with the AfD in favour of the SPD, his professed desire to cut immigration may be thwarted by his leftist coalition partners.

While the Union (CDU/CSU) has held a commanding lead for much of the campaign at around 30 per cent, with around a third of voters remaining undecided, it remains to be seen if a Black/Red alliance with the SPD will have enough support for a majority in the parliament. Should this happen, Merz may be forced into a three-way coalition with the Social Democrats and the even further left-wing Greens or walk back his pledge and form a right-wing government with the AfD.

The Rising of the Right

Formed just 12 years ago, the anti-mass migration populist Alternative for Germany party has continued to gain ground as voters sour on the influx of foreigners into the country under the watch of the two Berlin establishment parties. Currently standing at around 20 per cent in the polls, the Alice Weidel-led party has firmly entrenched itself as the second-largest party in the country, following the CDU/CSU Union.

While the party has been maligned in the legacy media and by rivals as a “far-right” hier to the Nazis and has even faced calls by politicians to be banned outright as an extremist organisation, the AfD’s actual platform is broadly similar to those of other mainstream right-wing parties in Europe and the United States.

The rise of the right-wing party has seen frequent protests from the left — many of which have been reportedly organised by groups funded by the government in Berlin — over claims that the AfD’s policy of “remigration” would extend to second and third-generation migrants. The party has rejected this characterisation of their policy, saying that it would only apply to those “without the right to stay” in the country, such as illegal migrants and asylum seekers from countries no longer in conflict, such as Afghanistan and Syria.

Support for the AfD has risen over the past year amid a spate of high-profile terror attacks accross Germany allegedly committed by migrants or asylum seekers, including in Mannheim, Solingen, Magdeburg, Aschaffenburg, and Munich.

The party has also taken a hard stance against the green agenda, calling for reversing the decision to phase out nuclear power, arguing for fracking to be made legal, and for Germany to take in natural gas from Russia once again.

Bolstering their cause, the party has drawn the endorsement of X owner Elon Musk, who has claimed that the AfD represents the “last chance” for Germany to reverse course on its globalist agenda. The party has also been boosted in recent days with meetings with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Hungarian Prime Minsiter Viktor Orbán, all of whom featured in the party’s final campaign ad. The party also featured a trend of young women dancing to various AfD-inspired songs on TikTok and other social media platforms as it hopes to build on its growing base of young voters.

So Long, Scholz?

Less than four years after sweeping to power, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party appear set to be relegated to the third largest party in the Bundestag, behind the Union and, most embarrassingly, behind the AfD. After winning over 25 per cent of the vote in 2021, the leftist-establishment party is now projected only to win around 15 per cent in Sunday’s elections.

Scholz’s tenure as the top man in Berlin has been rocky since the outset, having come to power amid draconian lockdowns during the Chinese coronavirus crisis, which oversaw the implementation of as Merkel’s vice chancellor. This was followed by soaring inflation as countries began to emerge from lockdowns, the government spending spree began to bite, and supply chain issues emerged.

Things went from bad to worse just two months into office for Scholz as Russia invaded Ukraine, sparking an energy crisis throughout Europe as Moscow cut off the taps of natural gas imports in response to EU sanctions, critically damaging Germany’s manufacturing base.

To make matters worse, the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany suffered a suspected sabotage attack in September of 2022. Reports have claimed that the Scholz government had ignored warnings from the United States and others of a potential plot against its critical infrastructure, which previously accounted for around half of its natural gas demands.

The impact of the cutoff of Russian gas was made even worse by the disastrous decision by the Sholz government to continue a Merkel-era policy of phasing out Germany’s remaining nuclear power stations as the country foolishly embarked upon a green agenda policy of pursuing so-called renewable energy sources. Such failures have seen the cost of living soar in Germany and its industrial capacity severely impacted.

In addition to this, his SPD government has suffered in the polls as a result of continuing the open borders agenda of the previous coalition government with Merkel’s Union, particularly in the wake of several terror attacks in recent months. Ultimately, the Scholz-led government collapsed in November, just one day after the victory of Donald Trump in the United States presidential election, amid growing recognition that the weak coalition government would not be able to stand up to the incoming president.

Although the SPD may enter back into government as a junior partner to the CDU/CSU of Friedrich Merz, it is doubtful that Scholz would remain as the leader of the left-wing party, with both Merz and Scholz admitting that such a partnership would be untenable. Current Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has been widely speculated as a replacement for Scholz at the head of the SPD in a potential coalition government.

The Globalist Greens

Amid growing recognition of the folly of far-left green policies, the “Alliance 90/The Greens” has seen their support fade since the 2021 election when the party won nearly 15 per cent of the vote. According to the latest polling, the former member of the “traffic light” coalition government under Chancellor Scholz is projected to win around 12.5 per cent of the vote.

The far-left party, which continues to advocate for mass migration and the radical green agenda, has likely been bolstered in the campaign by the popularity of its chancellor candidate, Robert Habeck. Despite a disastrous record as Germany’s economic minister, Habeck’s personal charisma — at least compared to the dour and diminutive Scholz — has propped up his campaign.

Under Habeck’s leadership, Germany is expected to be heading towards its third straight year of recession, which has never happened since the Second World War. According to Die Welt, some 50,000 businesses went bankrupt during Habeck’s term.

“High energy prices, high taxes, duties and crazy bureaucracy have triggered a process of deindustrialization. Almost three million people are already unemployed. Massive increases in rents and food prices have made life painfully more expensive,” the German paper of record noted.

Habeck was also a leading figure in the move to phase out Germany’s remaining nuclear power plants, a decision made doubly disastrous following the cutoff of Russian gas following the Ukraine war and the Nord Stream sabotage.

Nevertheless, Habeck has decided to double down on the green agenda, saying this week that his party will not join a coalition government if it seeks to reverse the planned ban on combustion engine cars by 2035. This position may make a partnership with Merz and the Union impossible, given Merz’s plan to delay the deadline to extend a lifeline to the faltering German auto industry.

Should Sunday’s vote split in such a way that the Union and the SPD do not have enough votes for a majority on their own and Habeck holds true against joining the coalition, it could force Merz’s hand on considering a right-wing coalition with the AfD, which is more closely aligned on the green agenda and mass migration to the CDU/CSU than the far-left Greens.

Battle for a Beachead

Under the German parliamentary system, a party needs to receive at least five per cent of the vote to qualify for representation in the Bundestag in Berlin. Currently, there are three parties hovering around this threshold: the corporatist former traffic light coalition partner Free Democrats (FDP), the socialist Left party, and the eponymous party of left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht.

The Free Democrats fell out with their former coalition partners, the Greens and SPD, in November over demands to curtail public spending not to breach debt rules, ultimately precipitating the collapse of the Scholz government.

Unlike the Greens, who appear intent on disqualifying themselves from partnership with Merz, the centrist free market-oriented FDP are openly campaigning for a seat at the table. However, with the party still tainted by the stench of the traffic light government, it is unclear if the Christian Lindner-led party will break the 5 per cent barrier needed for entry to the parliament.

At present, the FDP is projected at just 4.5 per cent. However, if the party does make the cut, they could provide Merz with a potential alternative to partnering with the AfD.

Meanwhile, there is a tight race between The Left and Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW. Last year, Wagenknecht broke away from The Left to form her own populist party after splitting with her former party on issues like coronavirus lockdowns, the war in Ukraine, and mass migration.

While The Left has suffered in recent years, it has run a strong campaign and has gained ground with socialist promises such as capping rents across Germany.

This has apparently taken some of the steam out of Wagenknecht’s upstart populist party’s sails, with The Left standing at 7.5 per cent and the BSW standing at 5 per cent in the latest polls. However, if Wagenknecht’s party enters the Bundestag, it could serve as a boon to left-wing opponents of mass migration and other globalist polices in Germany and elsewhere throughout Europe.

Follow Kurt Zindulka on X: Follow @KurtZindulka or e-mail to: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.