By Mish Shedlock of MishTalk
For the first time in EU history, Germany is at the forefront of immigration suspension. Other EU countries will follow.
Image notes, I created the image using Grok, then modified the image in Photoshop to add German text, hopefully contextually accurate.
Schengen Zone
The Schengen Area (English: /ˈʃɛŋən/ SHENG-ən, Luxembourgish: [ˈʃæŋən]) is an area encompassing 29 European countries that have officially abolished border controls at their mutual borders.
Immigration Crackdown
Reuters reports Germany Tightens Controls at All Borders in Immigration Crackdown.
Germany’s government announced plans to impose tighter controls at all of the country’s land borders in what it called an attempt to tackle irregular migration and protect the public from threats such as Islamist extremism.
The controls within what is normally a wide area of free movement – the European Schengen zone – will start on Sept. 16 and initially last for six months, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said on Monday.The government has also designed a scheme enabling authorities to reject more migrants directly at German borders, Faeser said, without adding details on the controversial and legally fraught move.
The restrictions are part of a series of measures Germany has taken to toughen its stance on irregular migration in recent years following a surge in arrivals, in particular people fleeing war and poverty in the Middle East.
Recent deadly knife attacks in which the suspects were asylum seekers have stoked concerns over immigration. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for a knife attack in the western city of Solingen that killed three people in August.
Polls show it is also voters’ top concern in the state of Brandenburg, which is set to hold elections in two weeks.
Scholz and Faeser’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) are fighting to retain control of the government there, in a vote billed as a test of strength of the SPD ahead of next year’s federal election.
“The intention of the government seems to be to show symbolically to Germans and potential migrants that the latter are no longer wanted here,” said Marcus Engler at the German Centre for Integration and Migration Research.
“We Can Do This”
Does anyone recall Chancellor Angela Merkel’s comment on immigration? For discussion, please see my September 5, 2016 post Merkel humiliated in 3rd Place Finish to AfD in State Elections; Irony of the Day
Her highness, chancellor Angela Merkel suffered a humiliating loss in German state elections on Sunday.
Merkel came in third place, to the anti-immigration, eurosceptic AfD party in her own home state in statewide elections.
Peak Merkel
Also recall my June 15, 2018 post Merkel Coalition About to Collapse Over Immigration: Peak Merkel Revisited
Horst Seehofer, Germany’s Interior Minister, threatens to start the automatic rejection of refugees by executive order – which would be the end of the coalition.
The government crisis was triggered by two unrelated events – the murder of a young girl by an immigrant, and a scandal about the granting of refugee status to illegal immigrants.
No Longer Wanted
We have gone from “We Can Do This” to “No Longer Wanted”
From Eurointelligence …
It is almost comical that as Mario Draghi presents his report on the future of Europe, Germany has the brilliant idea to re-impose border controls and suspend the Schengen system of passport-free travel. The German government has come under pressure to crack down on immigration by trying to stop refugees at the border. Nancy Faeser, the interior minister, said the reason was to protect Germany against Islamic extremism, following a series of murders and attempted murders committed by immigrants in the last few weeks. The Schengen rules require an over-riding national security interest.
The collateral damage will be huge. Austria already said it will not take in any immigrants rejected by Germany. So Austria will almost surely do the same and close its border. Nobody to the east and south-east of Germany has the physical capacity and political willingness to absorb immigrants. The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia will all do the same. We assume that Switzerland, not a member of the EU but a member of Schengen, will follow. Italy has no border to close, but France does. Germany has now become an active participant in the beggar-thy-neighbour refugee policies of EU member states. Except that when Germany plays this game, it has much more serious consequences. This is a serious threat to the whole idea of Schengen. This is where the unravelling of Europe could be starting.
Annalena Baerbock, the foreign minister, warned her colleagues not to endanger the EU’s migration deal, and not to succumb to the illusion that European countries can solve the refugee problem at a national level.
The border closures do not come with a change in current laws. The German border guards will have to take in anybody who mentions the word asylum. But a majority of immigrants do not. FAZ notes that Friedrich Merz wants to go much beyond the current rule. He wants the police to be able to even reject people who claim asylum. The argument he uses is that Germany’s borders only with safe countries, so it is technically impossible for anyone to claim asylum at a German land border. He also maintains that law and order within Germany have a higher priority than Germany’s obligations under international law.
Friedrich Merz is leader of the CDU and leader of the opposition to the current Traffic Light Coalition: Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens, (red, yellow, green) respectively.
No Change in Current Laws
Schengen is enshrined in treaty. No country will propose any changes.
Instead, every county will ignore the treaty on grounds of a “higher law”.
Higher Laws
Given there are now higher laws than the EU treaties, I have a question:
When does France or Italy say the same thing about budget rules? Such logic could finally spell the end of EU and Eurozone Monetary Union (EMU) rules.
Meanwhile, back in the states ….
More Americans Call Volume of Immigrants a ‘Critical Threat’
The Washington Post reports More Americans Call Volume of Immigrants a ‘Critical Threat’
Americans’ concerns about immigration have risen sharply this year, with half of Americans saying that the large number of immigrants and refugees entering the country is a “critical threat” to U.S. interests, up from 42 percent last fall to the highest level since 2010, according to a poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
The poll found that most Americans support two proposals laid out by former president Donald Trump: using U.S. troops to stop immigrants from coming into the United States from Mexico and expanding a wall on that border.
But a larger majority of Americans oppose Trump’s proposal to put undocumented immigrants in mass-detention camps. If elected, Trump has pledged to immediately launch “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.”
A late July Wall Street Journal poll found that voters thought Trump would handle immigration better than Harris by 53 percent to 40 percent.
Chicago Council’s poll found 50 percent of Americans say large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the United States is a critical threat to the country’s interests, marking the highest level in Chicago Council polling since 2010, when it was 51 percent. Concerns over immigrants as a threat peaked at 60 percent in 2002, less than one year after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The United States has about 45 million immigrants, about 11 million of whom are undocumented.
“Mood on Main Street Darkens”
In the US, NFIB “Mood on Main Street Darkens” Small Business Optimism Dips
The July jump in small business optimism momentum lasted precisely one month.
What Are the Odds of Recession?
In case you missed it, please see The McKelvey Recession Indicator Triggered, But What Are the Odds?
Many eyes are on the McKelvey recession indicator. Too many? That would probably be the case if everyone believed it.
Heck, most of my own readers don’t seem to believe it. I have the odds well over 50 percent that a recession is underway. Click on the above link for discussion.
