New poll measures how Harris, Newsom and other top Democrats match up head-to-head with Trump in hypothetical showdowns
President Biden's drop in polls stuns data analyst: 'Not even on the same planet'
Voters have far less confidence in President Biden's mental fitness than they did four years ago, according to new polling.
A new national poll indicates that three-quarters of voters say the Democratic Party would have a better chance of keeping the White House with someone else other than President Biden at the top of the party's ticket.
And the survey, released Tuesday by CNN, suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris performs slightly better than Biden in a matchup with former President Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee.
The new poll was conducted entirely after Biden's extremely rough performance during last Thursday's face-to-face showdown between the two major party contenders.
Biden, who at age 81 is the oldest president in the nation's history, is facing the roughest stretch of his bid for a second term in the White House. This, after his halting delivery and stumbling answers at the debate, sparked widespread panic in the Democratic Party and spurred calls from political pundits, editorial writers, and some party politicians and donors for Biden to step aside as the party's 2024 standard-bearer.
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President Biden and former President Trump debate on Thursday night. (Getty Images)
According to the poll, 75% of voters and 56% of Democratic-aligned voters say the Democratic Party would have a better shot at keeping control of the presidency if Biden is replaced as the party's standard-bearer.
By comparison, 60% of voters and 83% of Republican-aligned voters questioned said the GOP has a better chance of winning the presidential election with Trump as the nominee than with someone else.
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Trump holds a six-point – 49%-43% – lead over Biden among registered voters nationwide, which is unchanged from CNN's previous poll in April. And it's consistent with Trump's lead in CNN polling dating back to last autumn.
But the vice president trails Trump by just two points – 47%-45% – in a hypothetical matchup, according to the poll.
"Harris’ slightly stronger showing against Trump rests at least in part on broader support from women (50% of female voters back Harris over Trump vs. 44% for Biden against Trump) and independents (43% Harris vs. 34% Biden)," the poll notes in a release.
President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris wave at a campaign event at Girard College on May 29, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
The survey, which was conducted on Friday through Sunday, entirely after last week's debate, also tested other high-profile Democrats that have been mentioned as possible replacements in the unlikely event that Biden ends his bid for a second term.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom trails Trump 48%-43%, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who ran for the 2020 Democratic nomination, trails Trump 47%-43%, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is down to Trump 47%-42%, according to hypothetical matchups in the survey.
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Biden's campaign has repeatedly insisted that the president has no intention of dropping out of the race.
The poll indicates that Biden’s support among Democratic voters has edged up to 91% from 85% in April. Meanwhile, 93% of Republicans back Trump, about equal to his support in April.
But the survey spotlights that Trump holds a 10-point advantage among independents.
Former President Trump speaks during a campaign event at Historic Greenbrier Farms in Chesapeake, Virginia, on Friday, June 28, 2024. (Parker Michels-Boyce/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The CNN poll's release came hours after a USA Today/Suffolk University survey also conducted Friday through Sunday indicated Trump at 41% support and Biden at 38% among registered voters nationwide.
The Democratic incumbent in the White House and his Republican predecessor were tied at 37% in the previous USA Today/Suffolk University poll, which was conducted in May.
While Trump's advantage in the new survey was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, there were other warning signs for Biden.
In numbers from the poll released on Monday afternoon, 41% of Democrats questioned said they wanted Biden replaced at the top of the Democratic Party ticket.
Only 14% of Republicans surveyed said they would like to see Trump replaced at the top of the GOP ticket.
"There's no question the debate sent out shock waves across the political landscape," Suffolk Political Research Center director David Paleologos said. "Democrats in the poll are offering tough love to President Biden by saying to him, 'You've served us well, but try to see yourself last Thursday night through our eyes. Hold your head up high, it's time to go.'"
The poll also indicates that Trump now leads Biden 25% to 17% as the second choice for voters currently backing one of the third-party or independent candidates. That is a switch from late last year, when Biden had the edge.
The survey also indicates that Trump supporters – at 59% – are much more excited about their candidate than Biden backers – at 29%. Such a large enthusiasm gap, if it holds, could be consequential when it comes to convincing supporters to actually vote in the autumn election.
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