The latest Harvard-Harris poll shows former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden by six points nationally in a hypothetical head-to-head race.
The poll, published Monday, finds Trump with a 49 percent to 43 percent edge over Biden, with less than six months to go until the November 5 election. Eight percent of respondents were undecided.
When undecided voters were pushed to select the candidate they leaned toward and included with the rest of the sample, Trump led 53 percent to 47 percent. His six-point advantage is a two-percent increase compared to April, when he led Biden 52 percent to 48 percent with leaners included.
🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 20, 2024
🟥 Trump 49% (+6)
🟦 Biden 43%
With leans
🟥 Trump 53% (+6)
🟦 Biden 47%
—
🟥 Trump 45% (+5)
🟦 Biden 40%
🟨 RFK Jr 14%
—
May 15-16 | 1,660 RV | MoE: ±2.0%https://t.co/SIj9CohwsW pic.twitter.com/nWKTppTyqF
Republicans coalesced behind the former president at a higher rate than Democrats got behind Biden, indicating enthusiasm is stronger among the GOP.
With leaners included, the 45th president garnered the support of 95 percent of GOP voters, while Biden corraled 91 percent of Democrats. Nearly one in ten Democrats broke for Trump, but just one in twenty Republicans supported Biden.
Moreover, Trump leads Biden 56 percent to 44 percent with unaffiliated and third-party voters.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Among independents
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 20, 2024
🟥 Trump 56% (+12)
🟦 Biden 44%
.
🟥 Trump 44% (+10)
🟦 Biden 34%
🟨 RFK Jr 22%
Harvard/Harris | May 15-16 | RVs https://t.co/qQC4qvYAOj pic.twitter.com/e5YlJnlbHW
His edge over Biden drops one point when independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is added to the mix.
Trump registers at 45 percent, followed by Biden at 40 percent and RFK Jr. at 14 percent with leaners accounted for.
Looking at Republican voters, 86 percent support the presumptive GOP nominee, 8 percent back Kennedy, and 6 percent back Biden. Biden leads with Democrats at 79 percent, while Kennedy and Trump pull 14 percent and 7 percent, respectively.
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The 45th president still comfortably leads Biden among independents, 44 percent to 34 percent. Another 22 percent of the demographic supported Kennedy in this scenario.
Moreover, the poll also found that the presidential race would remain extremely competitive in three scenarios in which Trump was hypothetically convicted in either the documents case, the January 6 case, or the Georgia election case:
Documents Case:
- Trump: 52
- Biden: 48
Georgia Election Case:
- Trump: 50
- Biden: 50
January 6 Case:
- Trump 49
- Biden 51
🇺🇲 2024 GE: "If Trump is convicted of crimes related to his handling of classified presidential documents"
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 20, 2024
🟥 Trump 52%
🟦 Biden 48%
—
"If Trump is convicted for RICO in trying to influence the 2020 election results in Georgia"
🟦 Biden 50%
🟥 Trump 50%
—
"If Trump is… https://t.co/qQC4qvYAOj pic.twitter.com/OkSr2pyv8e
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Matt Perdie / Breitbart NewsThe poll shows that 69 percent of voters have made up their minds about who they will vote for, while 31 percent are still considering their options. A higher percentage of Republican voters (78 percent) are set on a candidate than Democrat voters (70 percent). A majority of independents (56 percent) have made up their minds, though 44 percent are considering multiple candidates.
The survey sampled 1,660 registered voters on May 15 and 16. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
