Update (1755ET): The House passed the stopgap resolution on Tuesday to avert a partial government shutdown and fund federal agencies through September.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was able to convince most Republicans to vote for the bill, with the exception of Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), while one Democrat - Jared Golden (D-ME) joined the Republicans in passing the measure which increases security spending by $4.4 billion, contains a $440 million boost for immigration enforcement, and cuts the IRS budget by $20 billion.
It also prevents Washington DC from spending $1 billion of its own tax dollars, and allows the Pentagon flexibility to buy new weapons - an odd provision in a stopgap bill that was demanded by GOP defense hawks.
The bill also has no new limits on DOGE, and does not prevent agency heads from firing federal workers or canceling federal grants and contracts - actions which are currently being challenged in the courts in what critics argue amount to illegal impoundments of money approved by Congress.
The bill passed in a 217 - 213 vote, and will now move to the Senate, where it needs at least 60 votes to pass - meaning around 10 Democrats will need to cross party lines.
Moderate Senate Democrats, including Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, and Mark Kelly of Arizona have given no indication on how they'll vote, while Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) said he would support it.
If a Saturday shutdown does occur, the White House budget office would have the flexibility to decide which federal workers are furloughed (and would receive backpay) and which essential staff must continue in their positions without pay. The military would remain on duty without pay until the shutdown was over.
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Update (1240ET): JP Morgan has weighed in with the usual 'government shutdowns have meant little to the economy with the 5-week shutdown during 2018-19, real GDP fell by $11bn though $8bn was recovered after the gov’t reopened,' however the bank does note that 'equities have tended to fall in the days leading up to a shutdown before recovering all loses and resuming their trend higher,' while concluding "The setup is different this time and a gov’t shutdown is likely not on many investors’ radar."
Oh, fun...
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With three days remaining before the next shutdown, the House is expected to pass a stopgap funding package on Tuesday after the House Freedom Caucus agreed to back it - which means Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) may be able to pass the bill, which would fund the government until September - without the help of Democrats.
That said, despite the Freedom caucus' buy-in, Johnson still has several GOP holdouts - with the only one to go public being Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) - who President Donald Trump dragged on social media, calling for him to be primaried, and comparing him to Rep. Liz Cheney.
On Sunday, Massie said on X "I'm not voting for the Continuing Resolution budget (cut-copy-paste omnibus) this week," adding "Why would I vote to continue the waste fraud and abuse DOGE has found?"
To which Trump replied on Truth Social: "Congressman Thomas Massie, of beautiful Kentucky, is an automatic ‘NO’ vote on just about everything, despite the fact that he has always voted for Continuing Resolutions in the past,” Trump said. “HE SHOULD BE PRIMARIED, and I will lead the charge against him."
To which Massie then replied: "Someone thinks they can control my voting card by threatening my re-election. Guess what? Doesn’t work on me."
Also potentially on the fence Punchbowl reports that Reps. Kat Cammack (R-FL) and Beth Van Duyne (R-TX) both raised concerns over the measure during a GOP whip meeting on Monday.
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That said, the House Freedom Caucus endorsed the CR in a statement, saying:
"The House Freedom Caucus supports the FY 2025 Continuing Resolution. Contrary to Congress' longtime abuse of this legislative tool, this CR is a paradigm shift.
This bill will reduce and then freeze spending for the next six months to allow President Trump and his Administration to continue their critical work within the Executive Branch to find and eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse.
It entirely kills the prospect of a budget busting, pork filled omnibus this fiscal year, and it breaks the longstanding practice in the Swamp of handcuffing increases in defense funding with increases to the non-defense bureaucracy.
Furthermore, it contains zero earmarks, makes major rescissions to the Internal Revenue Service and the so-called “Commerce slush fund,” and includes additional funding for immigration enforcement and deportation operations. Perhaps most importantly, it prevents Democrats from derailing the America First agenda with a go-nowhere government shutdown.
With the six months of funding this bill provides, Freedom Caucus Members look forward to working hand-in-hand with DOGE, OMB, and the new cabinet secretaries in eliminating even more waste, fraud, and abuse — and enacting historic spending reforms via reconciliation — all as part of President Trump’s effort to balance the budget."
Trump, meanwhile, has been working the phones - calling undecided House Republicans, and will continue to do so today according to the report. As Punchbowl reports further:
Vice President JD Vance will attend the Republican Conference meeting this morning for a final lobbying blitz. OMB Director Russ Vought – a former Hill aide himself – met with GOP lawmakers on Monday night. Vought has been speaking to House Republicans one-on-one about the package.
“Trump is all in,” one House Republican leadership aide told us Monday night. “Members can’t be on the wrong side of this.”
Some of the opposition may be performative. Remember: Several House Republicans opposed giving Johnson another term as speaker in early January but buckled after Trump weighed in. Last month, a number of House Republicans backed the budget resolution only after entreaties from Trump.
Enter Hakeem
Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has gone all-in on opposing the funding bill, insisting that his caucus "will not be complicit in the Republican effort to hurt the American people."
On Tuesday, Johnson said "They are going to try to shut the government down. Every House Democrat will participate in this... You're about to see on vivid display, very clear the contrast: You will see one team that is working to fund the government... You're going to see another opposing the CR."
Senate Looms
If the bill can pass the House, Senate Democrats are a solid 'maybe' on the CR, while Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is a solid 'no.'
Given that, eight Democrats will have to vote yes to overcome a filibuster.
Key Senate Dems have trashed the CR as bad policy, however they also view a shutdown as an outcome that nobody wants - so they haven't declared it DOA in the Senate.
"Passing a full-year CR risks handing [Trump] a huge slush fund with which to do what he wants in ways that could be harmful to our national security," said Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE).
"I’m waiting to see what the final version is, until then we’re not gonna make any decisions," said Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).
And while Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) told Punchbowl just days ago that the CR was "awful," he told the outlet that he preferred it to a government shutdown.
