Iraqi officials – some on the record, some not – stated this week that they are finalizing an effort to remove nearly all American troops from the country following the collapse of the Islamic State “caliphate.”
The plan would allegedly remove nearly all American military personnel from the country by 2025, leaving some in the autonomous northern region governed by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) for another year. Defense Minister Thabit al-Abbasi reportedly announced the plan in an interview with the Saudi network Al Arabiya this week; the Washington Post quoted an anonymous “Iraqi military official” on Thursday describing the same plan as essentially agreed upon by Baghdad and Washington, but yet to be made public.
The reports surfaced as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian made the first international visit of his tenure this week: a tour of Iraq, which began on Wednesday in Baghdad and has taken him to the KRG capital, Erbil, and the city of Basra. Pezeshkian is expected to conclude his trip to Iraq after the Basra stop on Friday.
The Washington Post reported on Thursday that Washington and Baghdad had mostly finalized plans for a full withdrawal of American forces, citing Defense Minister Abbasi and its own anonymous source.
“Defense Minister Thabit al-Abbasi said the two nations had reached an agreement,” the Post claimed, “that would transition Operation Inherent Resolve, the U.S.-led military mission set up a decade ago to combat Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria, into a ‘sustainable security partnership’ and would remove in two stages the roughly 2,500 U.S. troops now stationed in Iraq.”
The newspaper noted that the Pentagon has yet to confirm or deny the reports of a withdrawal, but “Washington and Baghdad have already agreed in principle to end America’s anti-ISIS mission in Iraq.”
Al Arabiya, the Saudi news network, reported on September 8 that Iraq and the administration of outgoing President Joe Biden had agreed on a deal very similar to that reported by the Post, citing Abbasi. The report claimed that a major roadblock in concluding a full agreement was resistance from American Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to fully withdrawing troops in two years, insisting it was “not enough” time. Austin has already presided over one of the most disastrous withdrawals of American troops in history – the August 2021 collapse of the government of Afghanistan – and is likely seeking to minimize chances of a repeat incident.
Nonetheless, “we refused his proposal regarding an (extra) third year,” Abbassi reportedly said.
A week ago, Reuters similarly cited a host of anonymous individuals, including American and Iraqi officials, who said that such a withdrawal deal would be made public sometime in September. Iraqi officials reportedly insisted that the withdrawal was a “transition,” not an end, to security cooperation between Iraq and America.
American forces are currently present in Iraq as part of “Operation Inherent Resolve,” the global war against the Islamic State. At its peak, the Islamist State established a “caliphate” with its capital in Raqqa, Syria, that was bolstered by control of the second-largest city in Iraq, Mosul. An estimated 2,500 American troops are currently stationed in Iraq and another 900 in Syria as part of the operation.
Iraq’s cooperation with America has significantly damaged its relations with neighboring Iran, a sworn enemy of the United States that regularly bankrolls terrorists attacking American troops. Iran has dramatically increased its influence over the Iraqi government in the past five years as a result, in part, of the war on the Islamic State. Tehran has bolstered the influence of mostly Shiite militias known as the “Popular Mobilization Forces” (PMF) that participated in the war on ISIS even as some openly adhered to radical Islamist beliefs and engaged in terrorism. Their opposition to the Sunni jihadist organization ISIS resulted in them on occasion fighting on the same side as American and Kurdish troops and garnered them some praise from the Pentagon.
Following the collapse of the “caliphate,” however, Iran redirected many PMF forces, now formalized as arms of the Iraqi military, to threaten and attack American interests in the country. Some of those groups are believed to currently form part of the nebulous coalition known as the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” which has attacked Americans in the aftermath of the unprecedented massacre of 1,200 people in Israel by the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist group on October 7, 2023.
Pezeshkian, the newly minted “moderate” Iranian president, arrived in Iraq on Wednesday for his first international visit, meeting with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani and reportedly signing 14 agreements with Baghdad.
“We have discussed the geopolitical conditions of the two countries. The two states are the connecting point between Europe and Asia,” Pezeshkian said, according to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency.
Tasnim noted that Pezeshkian reportedly emphasized the importance of “security agreements between the two countries in order to fight against terrorism and the enemies who have targeted regional security and stability,” presumably including the United States, which “supreme leader” of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei regularly refers to as an “enemy” state.
“If we stand together, we can take significant steps. This trip is a great opportunity to share our perspectives and take the next steps within the framework of the signed agreements and understandings,” Pezeshkian was quoted as saying in Baghdad.
Pezehskian also traveled to the KRG, where he met with President Nechirvan Barzani on Thursday.
“It is essential to improve cooperation (in order to) prepare the necessary security ground for enhanced economic and commercial relations and interactions, especially in the border areas,” Pezeshkian said during his meeting with Barzani. The president stressed, Iranian state propaganda outlet PressTV claimed, that Iran would “never allow any sides to use it as a threat against the Islamic Republic,” presumably a reference to the United States.
American troops and Kurdish Peshmerga forces cooperated closely during the fight against the Islamic State, but the relationship between Washington and Erbil cooled after the fall of the “caliphate” in 2017. That year, the KRG held a referendum on declaring independence, which the administration of former President Donald Trump opposed. Though the referendum won, the lack of American support resulted in PMF attacks on Kurds and Iran moving to increase its influence over the KRG.
