A poll released Monday by the Jewish Democratic Council of America claims that Vice President Kamala Harris will win over two-thirds of the Jewish vote, while former President Donald Trump will only win one in four Jewish votes, suggesting Democrats have not lost Jewish support.
There has been speculation that Jewish voters might shift Republican, due to perceptions that the Biden-Harris administration had handled Israel poorly, and the fact that they have presided during a shocking rise in antisemitism.
Jewish voters are typically too small in number to make much of a difference in presidential elections, though they may have tipped the balance in Florida in 2000 (by voting, incorrectly, for Pat Buchanan on a faulty ballot in Palm Beach County). They could also play a role in swing states like Pennsylvania, where the result is expected to be close.
The Jewish Democratic Council of America — which held an event at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois, last month, at which it attempted to blame “Christian Nationalism” for antisemitism — claimed that the poll results showed that American Jews “are preparing to play a critical role in defeating [Trump] in November.”
The poll, overall, found that 68% of registered Jewish voters, in a sample of 800 self-identified Jews, interviewed August 27 to September 1, planned to vote for Harris, versus 25% of registered voters who preferred Trump.
That result likely understates Trump’s support, which broke 30% in 2020, and which will likely be higher in 2024 — though not as high as 50%, a number derived from a small sample (100) in a recent poll including Jewish voters in New York.
More notably, the poll did not state whether those voters for whom Israel is the most important issue prefer Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. The slides do not consider that issue, and the polling website does not provide crosstabs.
Regardless, the poll illustrates a stark contrast between Orthodox Jews (9% of the sample) and other Jews.
The fact that Orthodox Jews are different is most striking when it comes to the question of approval of the Biden-Harris administration: 85% of Orthodox Jews in the poll said that they disapproved. Reform Jews (77%) and Conservative Jews (74%), who are between Reform and Orthodox in their level of observance, felt the opposite.
A majority of Orthodox Jews (59% to 41%) also opposed the Biden-Harris administration’s efforts to push for the release of Israeli hostages — though it is not clear whether that was because they felt the effort is insufficient, or because those voters prioritize victory over Hamas rather than a hostage deal that would allow Hamas to survive.
75% of the respondents in the poll said they felt “very attached” (43%) or “somewhat attached” (32%) to Israel. But only 9% of respondents said that Israel was the most important issue in the election.
Reform Jews and unaffiliated Jews said that “the future of democracy” was their top issue; Conservative Jews said that “abortion” was the most important issue; Orthodox Jews said that “inflation and the economy” was their top issue, along with “antisemitism.” More Orthodox Jews (31%) said that Israel was the most important issue for them than any other denomination of Jews; only 8% of Reform Jews and 3% of unaffiliated Jews felt the same way.
The question of which candidate is preferred by Jewish voters for whom Israel is the most important issue is an important measurement of perceptions of the success or failure of the Biden-Harris administration’s foreign policy.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of The Agenda: What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days, available for pre-order on Amazon. He is also the author of The Trumpian Virtues: The Lessons and Legacy of Donald Trump’s Presidency, now available on Audible. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.
