Wisconsin’s Senate race between Republican Eric Hovde and incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is now a tossup, according to the Cook Political Report (CPR).
CPR shifted the race from “lean democrat” to “toss up” Tuesday as Hovde continues building momentum in the state Democrats had taken for granted just months ago.
The Report says Wisconsin is now “the closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled,” saying Baldwin’s seven-point August lead has been reduced to two points, with Baldwin now up over Hovde 49%-47%. Despite other public polling, CPS says private polling from both parties mirrors their own findings.
The blistering downgrade of Baldwin’s chances of retaining her seat come as the Wall Street Journal reports that Democrats have privately grown worried about Kamala Harris’s appeal in Wisconsin, Michigan, and other states with working-class voters that will decide the presidential contest.
A recent internal poll from Baldwin’s campaign shows Harris down 3 points to Donald Trump in Wisconsin while Baldwin is only up 2, according to a person familiar with that poll. That source told the Journal that much of the narrowing is due to Republicans’ strength with non-college-educated men.
Trump’s strength with rank-and-file union members has loosened the Democrat Party’s longtime hold on unions. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters and International Association of Firefights both declined to endorse either candidate after endorsing Joe Biden in 2020, a huge blow to Harris.
The Harris campaign had taken the firefighters’ union endorsement for granted, even planning an event related to the endorsement to take place after their announcement. The union’s non-endorsement shifted those plans, the Journal reports.
Other reports have emerged that Wisconsin Democrats are panicking. Friday, Axios reported that the surprising strength of Hovde coupled with Trump’s strong polling in the state has created a nightmare scenario for Wisconsin Democrats reminiscent of 2016, when Trump defeated Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton in the state.
Baldwin’s “lead in both public and internal polls has deteriorated, and Republicans are flooding the state with cash to pull off the upset,” Axios reported. “Multiple Democratic sources told Axios there are ‘alarm bells’ ringing in the state, arguing the race is much tighter than what public polling has shown.”
Republicans clearly see opportunities in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania Senate races. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely allied with Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), is going on offense with TV, radio, and digital ad buys in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, the Journal reported recently.
The group will spend $28 million in Pennsylvania, $17 million in Wisconsin, and $22.5 million in Michigan — three states also prioritized by Trump’s campaign.
“The consistent pattern we’ve seen is that these races are closing,” said Steven Law of the Senate Leadership Fund.
Bradley Jaye is a Capitol Hill Correspondent for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter at @BradleyAJaye.
