Major Poll Predicts Farage’s Reform Party to Pick Up 18 Seats, Win More Votes Than Tories Nationally

A survey of nearly 20,000 Britons put Nigel Farage’s Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives nationally and on course to pick up 18 seats in the House of Commons following next week’s elections, an outcome which would have been seen as impossible just a month ago.

Nigel Farage’s return to frontline politics — after having stepped aside following the withdrawal of the UK from the EU — his rebranded Brexit Party (now Reform UK) has seen a stunning rise in support, as people disaffected from both Westminster establishment parties have found a home in the populist upstart party.

An MRP poll from Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus found that Farage’s Reform party is now on pace to win 17 per cent of the vote nationally, compared to 15 per cent for the governing Conservative Party, which would represent the worst performance since 1900 for the party that has dominated the British political landscape for centuries.

Additionally, the survey also predicted Reform to win 18 seats, with Nigel Farage, deputy leader Richard Tice, and Tory defector Lee Anderson all on pace to have seats in Parliament, The Telegraph reports.

Conversely, much of the leadership of the Conservative government would be kicked out of office, if the polling holds true, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Deputy PM Oliver Dowden all on course to lose at the July 4th general election.

Even the party’s bench, such as Equalities Minister Kemi Badenoch and Leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt –who many pin their hopes on for taking over leadership after the expected loss — are projected to lose their seats.

Mr Farage has said that his goal for this election will be to establish a “beachhead” in Parliament for the Reform Party from which to compete with the Labour Party in the 2029 general election as the true opposition party against the expected left-wing government.

While Reform will have a claim to the mantle of the main opposition party if, as the survey predicts, it receives the second-most votes in the country, it will still not likely be enough to become the “official opposition” in the parliament.

Because of Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system, the number of votes received nationally does not always equate to how many seats the party holds in parliament.

Therefore, even if the survey is correct, the fourth-placed Liberal Democrats would actually become the “official opposition” in the Commons with 71 seats.

Meanwhile, even if they fall below Reform in terms of total vote share, the Conservatives are on pace to only secure 60 seats, a decline of 305 from the last general election in 2019.

Nevertheless, the latest polling will likely serve to boost the Farage-led party, which is increasingly controlling the political debate in the country.

Reform candidate for Great Yarmouth, Rupert Lowe said: “Another mega-poll just out. Reform winning in EIGHTEEN seats. Great Yarmouth is one of them.

“A vote for the Tories here is a wasted vote. Only Reform can beat Labour. Vote Reform, get Reform!”

Follow Kurt Zindulka on X: Follow @KurtZindulka or e-mail to: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.