Independent voters have swung 28 points away from President Joe Biden and toward former President Donald Trump since 2020, an NPR/Marist poll revealed Wednesday.
The dramatic shift over four years is terrible news for Biden’s reelection campaign, which is facing dreadful polling numbers on nearly all fronts.
During the course of Biden’s presidency, the poll found Biden’s approval among independents went down 12 points, while Trump’s approval shot up 16 points:
- 2020: Biden 57 percent (+21) Trump 36 percent
- 2024: Trump 52 percent (+7) Biden 45 percent
The poll shows Biden leading Trump by two points but within the margin of error:
- Biden: 50 percent
- Trump: 48 percent
The poll sampled 1,305 adults from March 25-28, 2024, with a ± 3.5 percent margin of error.
The Real Clear Politics national average shows Trump leading Biden by 0.8 points, but national polling is less significant than swing state surveys.
In six of the seven top swing states, Trump leads Biden, reversing Biden’s 2020 success in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona, a Wall Street Journal poll found Tuesday:
- Pennsylvania: Trump 47 percent (+3) Biden 44 percent
- Nevada: Trump 48 percent (+4) Biden 44 percent
- Michigan: Trump 48 percent (+3) Biden 45 percent
- North Carolina: Trump 49 percent (+6) Biden 43 percent
- Arizona: Trump 47 percent (+5) Biden 42 percent
- Wisconsin: Biden 46 percent (=) Trump 46 percent
- Georgia: Trump 44 percent (+1) Biden 43 percent
“Overall, the poll shows substantial unhappiness with Biden among voters who will have the most influence in the outcome of the election, as expanded one-party dominance in states has left just a few as politically competitive,” the Journal reported.
Trump is also crushing Biden in six of the eight top 2024 issues, according to the Journal poll:
- Economy: Trump 54 percent (+20) Biden 34 percent
- Border Security: Trump 52 percent (+20) Biden 32 percent
- Protecting Democracy: Biden 43 percent (+1) Trump 42 percent
- Abortion: Biden 45 percent (+12) Trump 33 percent
- Inflation and Rising Costs: Trump 53 percent (+20) Biden 33 percent
- Mental and Physical Fitness Needed to Be President: Trump 48 percent (+20) Biden 28 percent
- Ukraine/Russia War: Trump 46 percent (+9) Biden 37 percent
- Israel/Hamas War: Trump 45 percent (+14) Biden 31 percent
Biden’s border security and economy, both of which favor Trump, are two of the top 2024 issues. Biden’s approval rating is below 50 percent on the two topics, a YouGov poll in March found:
- Immigration: 30 percent approved — 59 percent disapproved
- Jobs and the economy: 41 percent approved — 51 percent disapproved
Overall, only 40 percent of Americans approved of Biden’s job performance, well below the 50 percent threshold that incumbents historically need to win reelection.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former GOP War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
