House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his predecessor Nancy Pelosi shared an essential strength in modern-day politics that gave them an edge when it came to clawing their way to the top of their parties.
Both Californians are powerhouse fundraisers who spent years helping build out their majorities by showering their colleagues in tight reelections, as well as the party itself, with tens of millions of dollars in cash.
As the dust settles on McCarthy’s swift demise, there’s a nervous edge surrounding the frenetic race to anoint a successor.
Will the chaotic GOP infighting discourage conservative donors from ponying up this cycle? And are the candidates for speaker, Reps. Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, the declared contenders in the race, and Rep. Kevin Hern, who is still gauging interest, willing and able to do what it takes to remain just as financially competitive with Democrats as when McCarthy was at the helm?
“The biggest question mark is fundraising,” one GOP operative told RealClearPolitics. “The issue set and political environment are very positive for Republicans, and we have a clear playbook to run on – economy, prices, crime, border.”
In recent years the speakership has been a blessing and a curse for Republicans as a hardline conservative minority in the House has used the GOP’s thin majorities to hold their leaders’ feet to the fire on promises to cut spending and other priorities.
Republican political operatives want to ensure that the next speaker will devote the time and energy crisscrossing the country, hat in hand, to match or even rival McCarthy’s fundraising juggernaut. They’re also looking for a commitment that the new speaker will spend as much time as team McCarthy did recruiting the right candidates for each district, even if those members are more centrist than the hardline rabble rousers would like.
Also, is the timing right for Scalise, who is undergoing treatment for cancer and already survived a bullet shot to his left hip during a congressional baseball game practice, fracturing bones and injuring internal organs?
And will Jim Jordan, who chairs the House Judiciary Committee and has rattled his colleagues with his hardline public spats, take sides in primaries, or will he back the candidates with the best chance at winning and expanding the Republican majority?
Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel, who overcame a challenge to her hold on the party’s leadership earlier this year, alluded Tuesday to the myriad fears rippling through the party.
"I've worked with Kevin McCarthy the past four years. You don't get the House without Kevin McCarthy, with the recruitment that he did, with the record number of women and minority members serving in Congress,” she told Fox News. “It takes a lot of flying and a lot of fundraising and a lot of grit to do what he did to get us the House back, and I'm very sad on a personal level for my friend, Kevin McCarthy."
The morning after losing the gavel, McCarthy suggested that what his fellow Republicans should be sad about is that they’ve done this to themselves.
While trying to shore up his support this week, McCarthy said Democrats told him they couldn’t back his effort to hold onto the speakership because of his success as a fundraiser. Already this cycle, McCarthy has channeled millions of dollars to his party’s campaign committees, other candidates, and committees.
“I think the quote was, ‘Why would we help the person that becomes our executioner?’” McCarthy recalled.
He then mocked Rep. Matt Gaetz, who led his ouster, sarcastically remarking, “I’m sure Matt Gaetz will give the NRCC a lot of money.”
While arguing for his removal, Gaetz and Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee said McCarthy’s over-emphasis on fundraising from special interests was part of his undoing and a big motivating factor in their thinking.
McCarthy allies pushed back, with the most direct attack coming from conservative Rep. Garret Graves, who groused that Gaetz and his allies were illegally fundraising off the push to oust McCarthy.
“All of a sudden, my phone keeps sending text messages – text messages saying, ‘Hey, give me money’,” Graves said during a speech on the House floor. “Oh, look at that. Oh look, ‘Give me money. I filed the motion to vacate.’ Using official actions to raise money. It’s disgusting. It’s what’s disgusting about Washington.”
Shouts of “Shame!” filled the chamber from the Republican side.
“Boo all you want,” Gaetz retorted. “I’ll be happy to fund my political operation through the work of hard-working Americans – 10, and 20 and 30 dollars at a time – and you keep showing up at the lobbyist fundraisers and see how that goes for you.”
The next morning, Gaetz doubled down, sending out another email to would-be supporters, asking for more donations to help him fight the “RINOS” – a common taunt from the right meaning Republicans in Name Only – who attacked and booed him for asking individuals “to weigh in and contribute to this fight.”
Gaetz himself sailed to victory in his own heavily gerrymandered district, despite lingering allegations that he engaged in sex trafficking of a minor. An ongoing House ethics investigation into some of the same accusations may be more threatening. As Gaetz led the revolt against McCarthy over the last few days, some fellow Republicans have called for his expulsion from the House if the ethics committee finds him guilty of breaking House rules.
Despite all the sniping about fundraising and special interests, competing in heavily contested elections in swing districts doesn’t come cheap. It’s also the only way to grow and keep a majority. Even though the red wave that McCarthy and other many other GOP leaders anticipated in 2022 never materialized, Republicans won a net gain of three seats in New York, helping give the GOP its razor-thin majority. In the 2020 cycle, under McCarthy’s leadership, they also gained a total of three seats in the liberal stronghold of California while Donald Trump lost nationwide.
Over the last 24 hours, McCarthy cited these gains as proof of his solid record in his leadership role. All members of the GOP leadership team and top committee members rake in big money – but not at the same level as McCarthy. Last cycle, McCarthy’s personal campaign committee and the Majority Committee, his leadership PAC, amassed a combined $34.5 million, compared to the $21.6 million Scalise collected in his campaign committee and Eye of the Tiger PAC, according to opensecrets.org, the Center for Responsive Politics’ fundraising database.
In the 2022 cycle, Jordan raised nearly $14 million for his personal campaign committee, $126,000 for his Buckeye Liberty PAC, and also played a big role in directing $2.9 million in checks to the House Freedom Fund, the fundraising arm for the conservative House Freedom Caucus.
For several election cycles in a row, McCarthy also has headlined events for multiple joint fundraising committees and assists several outside groups, including the Congressional Leadership Fund and the American Action Network, an affiliated nonprofit. Just this week, CLF and AAN announced a fundraising total of $80 million so far this election cycle, $20 million higher than their previous record of $60 million in the first nine months of 2021.
“Under the leadership of Speaker McCarthy, House Republicans are better positioned than ever before to hold and grow the House majority next fall,” CLF President Dan Conston declared in a statement on Monday, before Gaetz moved to oust McCarthy from his job.
Later that day, Conston expressed deep concern about the rebellion against McCarthy, his friend and ally.
“[McCarthy] is the single most popular congressional leader,” Conston said on X, formerly Twitter. “He’s popular with Republicans nationwide. He is far from a liability in swing states.”
So far this cycle, McCarthy has collected $9 million in his personal campaign committee and nearly $4 million in his leadership PAC, according to the latest federal campaign disclosures. After all he’s been through McCarthy could simply choose to hold onto the cash, effectively withholding it from the GOP 2024 reelection efforts and keeping it on ice for his next political move. When former Republican speakers such as Newt Gingrich and John Boehner gave up their gavels, they left Congress altogether, but McCarthy hasn’t disclosed his plans.
The 16-year veteran of the House has plenty of choices when it comes to the funds he raised. He could retain the sums for a future political run, give them to GOP party committees, dole them out to Republican candidates or donate them to charities.
In a hastily assembled news conference Monday night, McCarthy announced his decision not to run for speaker again and cited upbeat quotes from Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and Lou Gehrig about his time running the House, insisting he wouldn’t have done anything differently. He pledged to continue to use his fundraising and political clout to help Republicans expand their House majority.
“I’m proud of the fact that as Republican leader, we elected more women, we elected more minorities, we expanded the base,” he told reporters. “We won in places no one thought we would win. The same way you would underestimate me. You always thought we’d lose each time around. We kept gaining.”
Asked if he there was anything he could have done differently with the eight GOP members who voted to remove him, McCarthy was quick to respond:
“Yeah,” he said. “A lot of them, I helped get elected. So, I probably should have picked someone else.”
Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics' White House/national political correspondent.
