Mike McDonnell deflates the GOP hope for a Nebraska electoral college winner-take-all scenario. This could be extremely important...
Image courtesy of the Silver Bulletin, anecdotes mine.
The Blue Wall Plus the Blue Dot
If Harris were to win the three Blue Wall States of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Trump were to win the states he is ahead in, plus Nevada, there would be a 269-269 electoral college tie, IF Nebraska was a winner-take-all take.
Based on House tiebreaker rules Trump would then win. Effectively, this would mean Harris needs 270 to win but Trump only 269.
Democrats Will Hold the Blue Dot
The Nebraska Examiner reports State Sen. Mike McDonnell deflates GOP hopes for Nebraska winner-take-all in 2024.
The Republican push to change how Nebraska awards its Electoral College votes and boost former President Donald Trump ran into political reality Monday as a key lawmaker, State Sen. Mike McDonnell, announced he won’t support the change.
McDonnell, of Omaha, said he had heard from people passionate about the issue who live in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District. But he said he did not hear enough to move him off his original position against the switch.
“Elections should be an opportunity for all voters to be heard, no matter who they are, where they live, or what party they support,” McDonnell said in a statement. “I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change.”
McDonnell said he told Gov. Jim Pillen his stance and suggested that the Legislature put winner-take-all to a vote of the people, as a proposed constitutional amendment, so people can decide the issue “once and for all.”
Nebraska and Maine are the only states that award a single Electoral College vote to the winner in each congressional district, plus two votes to the statewide winner of the presidential popular vote. Nebraska has split off votes twice in four presidential elections.
Pillen had pledged to call a special session if he could secure the 33 votes needed to overcome a filibuster to change to winner-take-all. All five of Nebraska’s GOP congressional delegates wrote a letter urging state lawmakers to pass such a move.
Political Calculus
For McDonnell, the calculus could be partly political. He has openly flirted with running for mayor of Omaha as early as 2025. His likely opponent, Republican incumbent Jean Stothert, has said she supports the switch to winner-take-all.
McDonnell was a Democrat, turned Republican. I suspect he will now run for Mayor of Omaha.
Maine has run out of time to eliminate the Red Dot. Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen ran into a filibuster.
Nate Silver has Trump’s odds of winning NE-2 at 18 percent.
With that, it is very hard to get a 269-269 tie.
Mathematical Odds
I discussed the odds of a tie in The Odds of an Electoral College Tie Are About to Soar, Who Would Win?
I arrived at 2-3 percent currently. But if the Blue Wall broke hard for Harris, and Nevada for hard for Trump (not that unlikely), the odds of a tie could have gotten to the low double digits.
It’s still possible to concoct a tie, but none of the possibilities make any sense.
If Harris wins the Blue Wall plus the normal Blue states, she would win 270 to 268.
A Blue Dot turned Red would have made that outcome 269 to 269 and rules are such that right now, Trump would win ties.
Take Heart Republicans, Mark Zandi Says Harris Will Win
Yesterday, I commented Take Heart Republicans, Mark Zandi Says Harris Will Win
Mark Zandi is the near-perfect contrarian indicator. I am wondering if anyone is better.
