Last week, RMG Research had the 2024 national race tied at 49 percent between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Today, Trump leads by two points, 49 to 47 percent.
The week prior to that, in this same poll, Kamala was beating Trump by five points, 47 to 42 percent.
Without including leaners, Trump has gone from being down five points to being up by one. That’s a six-point gain.
When leaners are included, Trump has gone from being down one point to being up by two points—a three-point gain.
“In the race for the White House, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. When leaners are included, the … survey of 3000 Likely Voters shows Trump ahead 49% to 47%,” reports the polls sponsor Napolitan News Service. “A week ago, the candidates were tied at 49% among Likely Voters.”
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These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point in time, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual.
As a result, the race for the White House remains too close to call. Anybody who says they know who will win is either lying to you or to themselves.
CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar has just enjoyed the best three weeks any presidential candidate has enjoyed in two decades. Because her record and policies stink, she’s run a brilliant cultural campaign backed by billions of dollars in free in-kind contributions from the corporate media. The last three weeks are as good as it gets. What’s more, Trump has had a pretty rough three weeks. Not as bad the corporate media claim, but whenever Trump starts rage-tweeting in the middle of the night, whenever he allows petty issues like crowd sizes to get under his skin, he reminds too many voters why they hate him more than inflation. Nevertheless…
CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar is losing ground in this good-sized poll of 3,000 likely voters. What’s more, in the RealClearPolitics average poll of national polls, she only leads Trump by a single point.
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To avoid making a fool of myself, I don’t make predictions, but based on these last three weeks, I expected Kamala to be up by an average of three to five points by now. The fact that this is basically a tied race should worry Kamala more than Trump. Despite the worst possible conditions, he is hanging on and still polling better than he ever did in 2016.
Also, Kamala won’t wear well. This forced joy is just that—forced. There’s a childishness about it, a lack of gravitas, a phoniness to the “white guy taco” nonsense. Eventually, voters will want to know what she plans to do, and so far two of her proposals—economy-crushing price controls and an inflation-exploding giveaway of $25,000 to first-time homebuyers are non-starters.
This might still be Trump’s race to lose.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
