Former President Donald Trump holds a stubborn lead over sitting Vice President Kamala Harris in the swing state of Arizona.
The Noble Predictive Insights poll of 1,003 registered Arizona voters was taken between August 12-16. So this was taken before three major events: the substance-free Democrat National Convention, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Trump of last week and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard’s (D-HI) Monday Trump endorsement.
Currently, Trump enjoys a three-point lead over Vice President CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar, 47 to 44 percent.
With third-party candidates included, including Kennedy, Trump still led 44 to 43 percent.
In the RealClearPolitics average poll of Arizona polls, Trump leads Harris by a half-point.
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Here’s what’s notable about the Arizona polling…
On Election Day 2020, Biden led Trump by a point in the average. We’re told he went on to win Arizona by less than a half-point. So, in 2020, we are told that in the final vote, Trump out-performed the polling by a half-point or so and he is currently up by a half-point.
As of now, there is no indication Harris enjoyed any kind of poll bump coming out of her hollow, estrogen-filled, policy-filled convention. This is especially remarkable when you consider the billions and billions of dollars the corporate media have spent to protect her from interviewing for the job with a media sitdown; to promote this San Francisco radical as a moderate; to pretend this sitting vice president is a change candidate; to fabricate this dummy as something special.
The question is now…
Has Kamala peaked, and if she has, she might win the popular vote, but Trump is ahead in enough of the state polls to pull a win. His leads are small, nothing like his leads against Joe Biden, but they are stubborn.
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Chris LaCivitaIt’s also fair to ask if Cackly has peaked when you realize she is out of sugar highs. No more conventions. No more announcements. Just high-risk debates (she is, for good reason, trying to worm out of) and the grind of a post-Labor Day presidential campaign.
What’s more, Trump and his running mate JD Vance have found their groove. Trump is running his most disciplined campaign yet, one built on substance and policy. Vance is all over the hostile media making fools of both them and Kamala.
As I wrote yesterday: looking at the current polling and shape of the race, today I’d rather be Trump and Vance than Cackly and A-Walz.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
