Nolte: Poll Shows Biden Campaign Might Be Defending Deep-Blue New York State

President Joe Biden’s lead in deep-blue New York State has dropped to just eight points. In 2020, we were told His Fraudulency won the state by…get a load of this…23 points.

What’s more, throughout the 2020 campaign, not a single poll showed Hunter’s Dad leading by fewer than 19 points.

It gets better…

Thursday’s poll, which shows Biden up by only eight points in a state we’re told Biden won by 23 points four years ago, is a Siena poll, and…

This same pollster polled New York State in 2020 and, in its final election poll, showed Biden winning New York by 32 points — 61 to 29 percent. On Thursday, Siena showed Biden up 47 to 39 percent. In other words, Biden has lost 24 points in the same state, per the same pollster.

It gets even better than that…

The Siena poll is no outlier. A Hill/Emerson poll, released at the end of May, had Biden up by only seven points in New York — 48 to 41 percent. The best lead Biden’s been able to poll in New York over the last eight months is 12 points.

In June 2023, Biden was +22 in New York. By February 2024, his lead had dropped to +11. Now it’s down to just +8.

Where Biden’s losing is among New York independent voters, among whom Trump leads 45 to 28 percent.

Biden’s net favorability rating is down to a new low in this poll: 42 percent favorable/53 percent unfavorable for -11 percent net. Granted, Trump’s favorability is -22 percent net, 37/59.

What might drive the Biden campaign to make the humiliating move of defending New York with an ad buy or some such thing is concern over voter enthusiasm. If Trump makes a serious play for New York, with these polling numbers, the Biden campaign won’t be able to ignore it. That means campaigning. That means a negative news cycle about Team Biden forced to spend time in a state he should never have had to worry about. That is a win-win for Team Trump.

New York is not the only state posting numbers that signal massive momentum toward Trump.

There is no question that Minnesota is in serious play. After seven polls, four from the same pollster, Biden’s average lead is only 1.7 points. In 2020, we were told Biden won Minnesota by 7.2 points.

Then there’s Iowa…

Now, Trump is going to win Iowa, but this Des Moines Register poll, showing Trump up by 18(!) points, should and is giving fascist Democrats the shivers. Trump won Iowa by 8.2 points in 2020. If he’s gained ten (the Des Moines Register is a world-class pollster), there is something happening on the ground, and, in these states, that could signal a serious political realignment thanks to 1) working-class voters, 2) minority voters who have had enough failure, and 3) Normal People who can’t vote for a man who wants mentally ill men to share their daughters’ locker room. 

John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.