The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average polls of swing states currently show former President Trump leading in all seven.
And by “all seven,” I mean the seven states commonly regarded as the ones still up for grabs that will decide who becomes our next president: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If memory serves, this is the first time either candidate has led in all seven.
On Thursday afternoon, the seventh and final state fell into place when Wisconsin moved into Trump’s column.
If the election were held today and the RCP polling averages were dead on, Trump would defeat incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris in a 312 to 226 near-electoral landslide.
Of note: Trump’s RCP average leads are thinner than thin:
- Michigan: +0.9
- Nevada: +0.5
- Pennsylvania: +0.5
- Wisconsin: +0.1
- Arizona: +1.1
- Georgia: 0.9
- North Carolina: 1.0
Nevertheless, it is the average that counts, along with the trends, and right now everything that matters is trending towards Trump. The trend is agonizingly slow, but it cannot be dismissed. Just two weeks ago, Harris led on average in the swing states. That lead has been erased by Trump running mate JD Vance’s superb debate performance in which he defeated Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz; Trump’s newfound campaign discipline; and a Kamala Harris who remains evasive, artificial, and lacking in stature or confidence even in the most friendly of media environments.
Bottom line: Kamala Harris is a terrible retail campaigner. She also made what is trending towards the fatal mistake of choosing Minnesota Gov. Walz over Josh Shapiro, the popular governor of the must-win Pennsylvania, as her running mate. Had she chosen Shapiro, who is also smarter and nowhere near as weird as Walz, we would likely be looking at a very different race. But Shapiro is Jewish, and Kamala’s base hates Jews.
Even stranger, Harris appears to have Hillary Clinton Syndrome. With 19 days to go, like Hillary, Kamala has an oddly light campaign schedule.
There has also been a narrowing in the national race. In the five most recent polls, Trump leads in two, Harris leads in two, and there is one tie.
If you believe the polls, this is Trump’s race to lose. If you believe today’s polls are even half as bad at undercounting the Trump vote as they were in 2016 and 2020, this is Trump’s landslide to lose.
The bad news for Kamala is that there is nothing on the election schedule that will create a turning point. No big announcements, no debates, no conventions… Events can always shake things up. A lot can happen over 19 days. But if Trump remains disciplined, Harris is helpless to change the dynamics of a race she appears to be losing.
Finally, these polls do not even include her disastrous Wednesday night Fox News interview. It’s hard to imagine Independents being won over by the haughty and prickly evasiveness she put on display in her only challenging interview.
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