Multiple reports of Democrats beginning to panic over the state of the race have been reinforced by a slew of swing state polls that show real momentum for former President Trump.
As always, I will use the most reliable polling available as an example, and that’s the RealClearPolitics average poll of state polls. Afterward, I’ll explain why Trump’s picking up steam.
In Pennsylvania, the state that will likely decide the next president, Trump leads sitting Vice President Kamala Harris by an average of 0.3 points. Of note, though, is that Harris has only led in one of the last seven polls. Also, if you remove the oldest poll, an outlier that shows CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar leading by five points, Trump’s average lead jumps to a full point.
For the sake of context, on this same day in the 2016 presidential election, Trump was losing Pennsylvania to Hillary Clinton by 9.4 points (Trump went on to win by 0.7 points). On this same day in 2020, Biden was ahead by 7.1 points. We’re told Biden won by only 1.2 points.
In Michigan, the state Democrats seem even more concerned about than Pennsylvania, Trump leads by an average of 0.7 point. Along with one tied poll, he has led in the four most recent polls.
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Matt Perdie / Breitbart NewsOn this day in 2016, Trump was down 7.3 points in Michigan. He ended up winning the state by 0.3 points. In 2020, Trump was down 6.7 points. We’re told he only lost by 2.8 points.
In Wisconsin, Harris leads by an average of 0.4 points, but the three most recent polls show Trump up by 1, by 2, and a tie.
On this day in 2016, Trump was down 6.8 points in Wisconsin. He ended up winning by 0.7 points. In 2020, he was down 5.5 points. We’re told Biden barely eked out a win by 0.7 points.
In North Carolina, Trump leads by an average of just 0.6 points, but he has led in seven of the last seven polls.
In Georgia, Trump leads by 0.8 points, but of the last seven polls, Trump leads in five, and two are tied.
In Arizona, Trump leads by 0.9 points and has held a lead in the three most recent polls.
Finally, in Nevada, where Kamala is campaigning today, she holds an average lead of one point.
Currently, in the RCP average, Trump leads in five of the seven swing states. That puts Trump back in the White House with 296 electoral votes to Kamala’s 215. Nevertheless, Kamala’s hold on Wisconsin looks shaky. The only state where she’s held a tiny but consistent lead is Nevada. When you look at the other state polls, there is a lot of red at the top. That’s momentum.
So what’s changed to give us a tiny break in what had been a maddening stalemate for so long…?
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Matthew Perdie / Breitbart NewsI would argue three things…
After losing that disastrous debate, Trump has been a much more disciplined campaigner. I cannot overstate how important it is for Trump to not remind a whole lot of voters of why they hate him more than illegal immigration and inflation. Discipline. Discipline. Discipline.
Second, Trump’s running mate JD Vance’s stellar performance in that vice presidential debate… Vance slaughtered Tim Walz and not only eviscerated Kamala’s failed record, he introduced himself as a nice, smart, decent guy in command of the facts.
Finally, as I have been saying all along, Kamala Harris is terrible at politics. Terrible. As much as I loathed the idea of a Hillary Clinton presidency, no one doubted she was up to the job. Harris has not cleared that bar. She constantly looks scripted, unsteady, and unwilling to give a straight answer. All of this makes her look weak in a country where the alpha male (who can be a woman) wins presidential elections.
Her dual stumbles this week when asked what she would do differently than Joe Biden is a perfect example. She’s asked the question on The View and flubs it by saying she wouldn’t do anything different. That very same afternoon Stephen Colbert gives her a second chance, and she answers the same way. You know Colbert was allowing her to clean up that View disaster and assumed she would. After all, she had hours and hours to craft a good answer. Instead, she looked oblivious and answered the same way.
And then there was her stalking of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in the middle of a hurricane. Talk about looking weak, pathetic, AND unpresidential. Biden stabbing Kamala in the back by praising DeSantis was even more delicious. Trust me; nothing would make Joe happier than to see Kamala lose.
We have three weeks and change to go, but as of today, I would rather be Trump than Harris. This is still The Donald’s race to lose.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
