The latest polling out of New Hampshire shows former President Trump up 16 points over former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC). The Donald is also topping the magic 50 percent mark.
“[N]ew polling data from Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and NBC10 Boston … conducted among 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters over two days” shows Trump sitting pretty at 50.4 percent support. Haley is in a distant second place with 33.8 percent.
The ultimate humiliation in this poll is that “undecided” beats Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 5.8 percent to 5.2 percent.
Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida and 2024 Republican presidential candidate, speaks during a campaign event, December 10, 2023. (Christian Monterrosa/Bloomberg via Getty)
Only 2.8 percent chose “someone else.”
This is the first New Hampshire poll I’ve come across taken since former Gov. Chris Christie (R-Narcissist) dropped out of the race. Knowing he had no chance, Christie removed himself to boost Haley in Iowa, and especially in New Hampshire.
Christie leaving the race didn’t help Haley much in Monday night’s Iowa Caucus. Trump walked away with 51 percent support and a record victory. Haley came in a distant third with just 19.1 percent. Granted, Christie was not polling well in Iowa, where he chose not to campaign. But Haley was in a tight race for a second-place showing in Iowa. Christie’s support could have been enough to top DeSantis, but DeSantis beat her with 21.2 percent support.
Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations and 2024 Republican presidential candidate, January 15, 2024. (Rachel Mummey/Bloomberg via Getty)
New Hampshire, however, is a different story. Before this latest poll, Christie averaged 11 percent support in the Granite State. Haley averaged 31.3 percent. Trump earned 44.5 percent. So, for the last week or so, the question has been…
Where will Christie’s New Hampshire support go?
The best way to analyze this is an apples-to-apples comparison. In the previous Boston Globe/Suffolk poll taken the first week of this month, Trump earned 46 percent support, Haley 26 percent, and Christie 12 percent.
This same poll today reveals that without Christie, Trump’s support jumped +4 to 50.4 percent, and Haley is up +8 at 34 percent. If you attribute those bumps to Christie dropping out, Haley scored the bigger bump but nothing close to what she needed to win.
It’s also worth noting that today’s poll was taken over Monday and Tuesday, which means half the poll was taken before Trump’s blow-out Iowa win. Until this tracking poll is released tomorrow, we won’t know how or if Trump’s Iowa triumph scrambled the New Hampshire game.
Equally troubling for Haley is the fact that Trump’s support is rock-hard. When asked if their vote was for Trump or against Haley, 90.48 percent of Trump supporters said “for Donald Trump.”
When Haley supporters were asked if their vote was for Haley or against Trump, only 53.85 percent said their vote was for Haley, while 37.28 percent said against Trump.
In the RealClearPolitics average poll of New Hampshire GOP primary polls, there is no question Haley is enjoying some momentum. In mid-December, Trump topped her by 27 points, 49 percent to 19 percent. Over these last 30 days, she has narrowed that to 13.2 points, 44.5 to 31.3 percent. Still, even in the unlikely event she wins New Hampshire, Trump is currently up 30 points in the next primary state, which is also Haley’s home state.
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