Poll: Donald Trump Begins Election Against Kamala Harris with Double-Digit Lead

Former President Donald Trump began the new general election race with a majority of national support and a double-digit lead against Democrat frontrunner Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a poll.

A Harris X/Forbes poll found Trump leading Harris 52 percent to 42 percent among 2,169 likely voters nationally. The survey, taken July 19-21, 2024, was conducted after journalist Mark Halperin’s accurate July 18 report that President Joe Biden would stand down as the presumptive nominee on Sunday amid a behind-the-scenes pressure campaign from his own party.

Another six percent of likely voters were undecided between Trump and Harris. When pressed to pick a candidate they leaned toward, 35 percent selected Trump, and 65 percent broke for Harris. With leaners included in the full sample of likely voters, Trump leads at 54 percent to Harris’s 46 percent among likely voters. Harris and Trump’s numbers are identical to those in the now-hypothetical Biden versus Trump race among likely voters, with leaners included.

Among independents, who are part of the larger sample of 2,753 registered voters, Trump holds a 48 percent to 33 percent lead over the vice president. They are in a dead heat with Hispanics at 45 percent, while Trump owns an 11-point lead among suburban voters at 51 percent to 40 percent. He is also backed by 25 percent of black registered voters, while 65 percent support Harris.

Enthusiasm for Trump on the right is also far more abundant than excitement for Harris on the left. Of registered Republicans sampled, 92 percent support Trump, while 83 percent of Democrats would vote for Harris.

The poll also finds registered Democrats entirely split on whether Harris or Biden should be the nominee, with each drawing 45 percent of the response. This notably came after Halperin’s bombshell report, and it indicates nearly half of the party’s voters were hoping what transpired Sunday did not come to fruition. Independents slightly favored Harris at 39 percent to 36 percent.

The margin of error (MOE) for the full sample of registered voters is ± 1.9 percentage points. It is unclear what the MOE is for likely voters.

The successful pressure campaign, which was reported to include former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) giving Biden an ultimatum to bow out of the presidential race “the easy way or the hard way,” comes after Biden won every single Demcorat nominating contest and earned 14 million votes. Now, a few thousand delegates will select the party’s nominee at the convention in August, with voters having no input.